Looking out for new rail lines to come
Change in measuring viability means greater connectivity for island
TWO weeks ago, Parliament approved a profound change to the way rail projects are built and financed here.
The amendment allows new MRT lines to be built as long as the entire network remains commercially viable. This is a stark departure from a longstanding principle that each new line had to be independently viable before it could be built.
The change was necessary. As new lines are added to the network, there is a good chance these will span corridors that yield lower commuter traffic than the mature lines. Under the old rules, these may take longer to build – if at all.
With the change, there is a better prospect of a new line being built to service less populated areas, as long as it enhances the overall connectivity of Singapore. For instance, a line may extend to an area like Seletar. Or you could have one that links two such areas, such as Punggol to Woodlands.
Lest readers get their hopes up, I should add that such lines, while possible, are unlikely to be up in the near future. This is because there is a long pipeline of rail projects scheduled for delivery first.
Over the next 10 years or so, there will be one new MRT line completed almost every year. Just to recap, the planned schedule is as follows:
2011 – Circle Line Stages 4 and 5
2012 – Circle Line Marina Bay Extension
2013 – Downtown Line Stage 1
2014 – North-South Line Marina Bay Extension
2015 – East-West Line Tuas Extension; and Downtown Line Stage 2
2017 – Downtown Line Stage 3
2018 – Thomson Line
2020 – Eastern Region Line
Chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport Lim Wee Kiak noted of the schedule: ‘This should be the fastest rate that Singapore has seen so far… We can’t be compared to giants like China and India, who have the manpower, resources and land to execute huge infrastructure projects at a faster pace.’
Given finite resources, delivering lines at a faster rate would be taxing, chaotic and potentially unsafe. The timeline thus finely balances budgetry considerations with engineering constraints. On a per capita basis, Singapore’s rail investment – a whopping $60 billion over the next 10 years – is indeed unrivalled.
But some readers may recall that previous plans had called for earlier deliveries.
Back in the mid-1990s, then Communications Minister Mah Bow Tan suggested that the Land Transport Authority deliver an average of one rail project a year. His successor Yeo Cheow Tong raised the long-term target for Singapore’s rail coverage – from 160km of lines to 540km – by 2030.
Had Singapore proceeded as planned, the first two stages of the Downtown Line may be near completion today. And the cost of construction might have been substantially lower.
Unfortunately, a few crises derailed plans: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the dot.com bubble burst of 2000, the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, and the Sars outbreak in 2003.
There was also the collapse of the Circle Line’s Nicoll Highway station site in 2004, which delayed the rail programme.
But now, it looks like plans are getting back on track, following an aggressive development schedule announced by Transport Minister Raymond Lim in 2008.
By 2020, Singapore’s rail network will double in length to 280km. Rail density will rise from 31km per million residents, to 51km per million – comparable to current standards in New York and London, where commuters in town need walk only five minutes to a station.
Building costs have gone up, but the commitment to invest in transport infrastructure remains unwavering. This is crucial, as daily trips by public transport are expected to exceed 10 million by 2020 – up from under six million today.
But what about beyond 2020? Will the rail network expand to 540km by 2030, as announced by former transport minister Yeo in Parliament in 2000?
The figure does not seem very feasible, as it would mean doubling 2020′s system in 10 years. In any case, there may be no point in constantly adding to a vast network, since investing in infrastructure cannot be the end-all solution to ever rising urban transport demand.
If land use policies and travel patterns do not evolve, even the fastest-growing MRT network will not be enough to transport a fast-growing population. People from newer lines would still need to link to the mature lines which reach the traditional residential and commercial hubs – causing a crunch no systemic upgrade can relieve.
In the long run, Singapore may need to ‘unbundle’ its central business district. Some recommendations made by the Economic Strategies Committee – such as moving the Tanjong Pagar port to Tuas – could show the way.
In the meantime, Singapore also needs to keep an eye on emerging transport trends and technologies. After all, the metropolitan rail system, while efficient, has been around for about 140 years. Something superior could come along.
A Shenzhen company showcased a ‘straddling bus’ concept recently. The enormous bus takes up to 1,200 passengers, straddles a two-lane road, and is raised so that faster-moving vehicles can pass under it.
A few European cities are experimenting with Personal Rapid Transit, a system of pod-like carriages linked to a sophisticated computer program that matches vehicle deployment with commuter load.
The former is said to almost rival the subway and is much cheaper to build, while the latter has been described as ‘taxis on tracks’.
But alternatives have to be studied carefully to see what works here, lest we end up with a lacklustre system like the LRT. With operators today beset by low ridership that no one foresaw or could quite explain, it does not look likely that a new LRT line will be built.
Meanwhile, delivering the slew of new lines from now till 2020 will be a titanic task. For the man in the street, there will be traffic diversions, noise and dust for years on end. These are inevitable with construction projects as massive and long-drawn as MRT projects.
But the payoffs when the lines are ready will surely be worth the trouble.
Source: Straits Times, 2 Sep 2010





