Outlook still favourable but mass market properties more popular

BUYERS are still showing relatively muted interest in the most luxurious homes in the city centre, the latest set of new home sales data shows.

But they are making a beeline for very popular mass market homes, followed by mid-tier units, the figures show.

Property experts say the outlook for the luxury sector remains favourable, though growth has slowed and current global uncertainties mean these prime high-end homes are unlikely to rebound this year as some experts had hoped.

A few months back, it was expected that luxury projects such as Ardmore3 and those on the former Grangeford and Parisian condo sites in the Orchard area would be launched in the first half year.

No major luxury projects were launched last year.

Developers of these homes have been cautious again this year. Bukit Sembawang recently said it will be launching the marketing of Paterson Suites in its current financial year ending March31 – unusually late in the game for a project that has already received its temporary occupation permit.

Underscoring the point, City Developments chairman Kwek Leng Beng last week said luxury homes had not sold as well as the industry had expected.

He said this segment would perform well – perhaps next year – only if the wider global economy stabilises.

Said Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han: ‘Singapore may not be the place to make extraordinary gains but the good thing is the luxury market is still compelling.The market is just taking a breather. The earliest possible time for the return of interest in the luxury end market will be at the end of the year.’

While the prime segment (homes selling for $2.5million to $5million) saw some activity in the first half, transactions in the luxury ($5-$8million) and super-luxury (above $8million) segments have been rather scarce, said CBRE executive director, residential, Mr Joseph Tan.

‘Most homebuyers were generally more cautious towards high-priced projects under the present uncertain conditions on the global front.’

Still, Colliers International’s director of research and advisory, Ms Tay Huey Ying said the price rebound in high-end and luxury properties, which started in the second half of last year, had continued this year, though the pace of growth has moderated to more sustainable rates.

‘Developers are holding back their high-end and luxury launches because there has been some derailment in the strength of the economic recovery due to the euro zone crisis. There is also growing uncertainty in the recovery of the US economy. Prices are not yet at the levels they are aiming for.’

More investors are going for cheaper new properties – mostly those under $1,500 psf – as global uncertainties have put a lid on risk appetites, said Ms Tay.

The slight slowdown means that price growth in the high-end and luxury segments is likely to come in towards the low end of the firm’s forecast range of 15-20per cent for this year, she said.

Experts note that in the first half year, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s price index for non-landed homes in prime districts was already up 10per cent, and is just 1.8per cent off the 2008 peak. This is just a tad slower than the 10.3per cent and 12.9per cent price gains seen for non-landed homes in the city fringes and suburban areas respectively.

CBRE expects high-end home prices – still about 5-10per cent below 2007 boom levels – to be stable till year-end.

While high-end prices are up this year, sales volume has not picked up significantly owing to fresh concerns on the global economic recovery’s sustainability.

But the number of high-end home deals of $3,000 psf and above has risen from eight units in the fourth quarter to 29 units and 35 units in the first and second quarters respectively, noted Savills Prestige Homes director Steven Ming.

‘This is an indication that pockets of luxury home buyers are still streaming into the local market,’ he said.

However, as high-end homes are very dependent on foreign demand, sales could recover to previous peaks in the next 12 to 18 months after macro-economic concerns have been sorted out, he said.

CBRE’s Mr Tan said developers have adopted a low-key strategy to marketing luxury projects, such as direct invitations for private previews and appointments.

For example, Far East Organization recently launched its luxury brand ‘Inessence’, and sold a handful of units in Boulevard Vue and Skyline @ Orchard Boulevard. Wheelock Properties and Hong Leong Group sold a few units at their respective new super-luxury projects, Orchard View and Sage.

Mr Tan said there is a ‘strong likelihood’ the high-end market will continue in this manner for the rest of the year.

However, the few possible high-end launches in September such as Twin Peaks and The Peak @ Cairnhill will test the market’s receptivity. If these launches do well, it will motivate developers to launch more high-end projects, he said.

joyceteo@sph.com.sg

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DEVELOPERS HOLDING BACK

‘Developers are holding back their high-end and luxury launches because there has been some derailment in the strength of the economic recovery due to the euro zone crisis. There is also growing uncertainty in the recovery of the US economy. Prices are not yet at the levels they are aiming for.’

Colliers International’s director of research and advisory, Ms Tay Huey Ying

Source: Straits Times, 19 Aug 2010

SALES of private residential properties surged to their highest level in nearly two years in May.

According to the latest data by the Urban Redevelopment Authority released yesterday, overall home sales totalled 1,668 units last month, the highest monthly figure since the all-time record of 1,723 units was set in August 2007.

Purchases of private homes in the prime districts, which include Holland Road, River Valley and Newton, nearly doubled in May with 617 units sold, compared with 322 in April.

Market watchers said the spike in transaction volumes was due to the recent stock market rally, coupled with optimistic consumer confidence and liquidity.

Said Mr Donald Han, managing director of Cushman and Wakefield: “Back in late March and April, the regional stock markets went up by about one-third. This fuelled a lot of the liquidity that is coming back into the (property) market.”

CBRE Research’s executive director, Mr Li Hiaw Ho, said there was a significant amount of interest in high-end properties last month. “Five units of The Orange Grove were sold at the median price of $2,320 per square foot (psf), while one unit each of Boulevard Vue and St Regis Residences was sold at $2,602 psf and $2,200 psf respectively,” said Mr Li.

Mrs Ong Choon Fah, head of consulting at DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, said the May figures suggest that the bullish sentiment in the mass market projects has started to filter up to the luxury segment. “The momentum has certainly picked up. A few projects have seen very brisk sales,” she said.

According to URA data, the most popular developments were Martin Place Residences, The Wharf Residence, The Arte and The Mezzo. These four projects, located in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11, as well as the city fringe areas, made up more than 30 per cent of the sales. The median prices of units there ranged from $903 to $1,423 psf.

Mr Desmond Sim, associate director of Research at Jones Lang LaSalle, said discounts given by the property developers and strong latent demand helped to boost sales.

Looking ahead, DTZ’s Mrs Ong said prices in the prime districts are likely to go up when more investors comes back into the market, prompting developers to launch the high-end properties in their inventories.

But analysts also warned that the current rebound in the property market may not be sustained.

“Activity remains confined within the residential market. This, in our view, is largely fuelled by softer prices and strong latent demand which alone will not be sufficient to sustain an overall recovery in the market,” said Mr Sim.

“Unless there are improvements in the overall economy, it may still take quite some time before we see the return of ‘super-luxury launches’ which may fetch an average $5,000 psf as affordability still remains the main factor to entice buyers.”

Source: Today, 16 June 2009

Developers sold year-high 1,668 units in May amid discounts and improved sentiment

Developer sales for the month hit 1,668 units – a record for the year and 37 per cent more than the 1,214 in April. More transactions also occurred in the high-end sector at prices above $2,000 per square foot (psf).

Hong Leong boss says many buyers out there, but luxury sector still listless

PRIVATE home prices in most sectors could start to rise gradually this year but high-end property will stay in the doldrums until later next year, according to tycoon Kwek Leng Beng.

Mr Kwek – executive chairman of the Hong Leong Group – said there are many cash-rich buyers waiting for the right time to buy.

‘Every time the market turns, some people would get caught out,’ he added.

The key question that many buyers are asking is: Has the market turned?

Urban Redevelopment Authority data shows that 1,207 new private homes were sold in April, making it the third consecutive month that sales have crossed the 1,000-unit mark.

It is a level reminiscent of the boom period and one that some analysts believe is unlikely to be sustained for long.

But Mr Kwek, who was speaking to The Straits Times on the sidelines of a recent hotel investment conference, feels that these levels of sales can be maintained ‘if the world economy stabilises’.

‘Confidence is the quick key to recovery. When you have confidence, you will invest,’ he said.

Mr Kwek said developers are sometimes wrong but the key is to be more often right than wrong.
He also reiterated that property is an investment over the medium to long term, anywhere from three to 10 years.

Developers got the market message this year and have cut prices to meet buyers’ expectations, following a stand-off that saw just 100-plus units sold in January.

‘If you’re listed, you’ll have to sell something. Otherwise, every quarter, you have no sales,’ said Mr Kwek.

Some developers have actually started to raise their asking prices slightly from their adjusted lows.
The strong sales so far this year have largely prompted two foreign investment houses to turn more positive on the residential market.

A recent UBS report points out that the sales momentum has been stronger than expected, with the possibility of higher prices in the second half of this year and next year.

It had already in a late April report called a ‘buy’ on the property sector, saying that demand from domestic upgraders – not foreign buying – will jump-start the recovery, as with previous recoveries in the 1990s.

Goldman Sachs has also projected a 5 per cent gain in Singapore private home prices next year, reversing its earlier tip of a 10 per cent fall.

‘We think the alignment of developers’ asking prices and buyer expectations would be key for generating sustainable demand,’ said the UBS report.

Nevertheless, not all are optimistic about the market.

‘This wave of purchases, once it’s over, won’t come back until the economy has recovered and embarked on its way up,’ said a property fund manager who declined to be named.

The pent-up demand is coming mostly from owner-occupiers or small investors and these people usually cannot afford to buy more than one unit, he said.

‘Foreigners are still leaving Singapore. When there are not enough real users for all the supply, prices will continue to fall.’

What is happening now in the real estate sector could be similar to the bear rally some analysts foresee for the stock market, he said, adding that the only good news is that mass-market prices are likely to hold at current levels.

Unlike high-end prices, which have fallen at least 35 per cent to 40 per cent from their all-time peak, the mass and mid-market sectors have had falls that are much less steep.

The price fall in high-end homes – which shot to more than $5,000 per sq ft during the boom from around $1,800 psf – is thus steeper, he said.

Average high-end prices may dip to around $2,300 psf, which is still higher than pre-boom levels.
Mr Kwek said the Hong Leong Group – which includes listed Hong Leong Finance, developer City Developments, Hong Leong Asia and London-listed Millennium & Copthorne Hotels – will hold off high-end home launches for now, preferring to start building first.

City Developments, the developer behind projects such as The Sail @ Marina Bay, has in its pipeline The Quayside Isle Collection in Sentosa Cove, a 99-year leasehold enclave where values have more or less collapsed.

High-end home prices were to a large extent boosted by foreign buying. ‘Foreigners will slowly come back but not so soon,’ said Mr Kwek.

The Indonesians, he said, are very slowly returning. Although the trend is barely discernible, it is a change from the previous downturn where they had all but disappeared.

Still, he cautioned against comparing prices with levels done a decade ago: ‘Ten years ago and now, Singapore has changed. Fundamentals are good.’

The country will soon benefit from two integrated resorts, for instance.

‘Worldwide, it is the worst downturn ever. But you see the amount of stimulus around. You can’t see the effects immediately. It will take some time,’ he said.

MAIN INGREDIENT
‘Confidence is the quick key to recovery. When you have confidence, you will invest.’
Mr Kwek, on the recent improvement in property sales

Source: Straits Times, 26 May 2009

Sales in core central region get big boost in April, soaring to 19-month high of 322 units

THE high-end property market – which has remained subdued since the beginning of the year even as activity increased in the mass-market segment – started to move in April.

According to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), some 1,207 units were sold by developers last month. And unlike in the first three months of the year, homes in Singapore’s core central region (CCR) – which includes the prime District 9, Marina Bay and Sentosa – sold as well, with transaction volumes there soaring to a 19-month high of 322 units. In contrast, only 133 homes were sold in the CCR in March.

This rebound is an encouraging sign that the high-end market is not totally void of life as feared, analysts said. Outside the CCR, some 523 homes were also sold in the mass-market outside central region in April, as well as 362 homes in the more upmarket rest of central region.

Buoyed by the performance of the mass market over two consecutive months in February and March, developers started testing the ground with launches in the mid-tier and high-end segments in April.

While just 70 units were launched in the CCR in March, the number rose almost five times to 339 units in April – the highest number since September 2007. Launches in the CCR accounted for almost one-third of all units launched in the month.

‘Developers were probably hoping to ride on the rebound in buying momentum to clear their stock and land bank,’ said Tay Huey Ying, director for research and advisory at Colliers International.

Colliers’ analysis showed that there was a significant jump in the number of new units sold in April in the range of $1,500 per square foot (psf) and above. Some 90 units were sold at above $1,500 psf in April, compared to less than 12 units a month in the preceding six months. Of note, Illuminaire on Devonshire sold all of its 72 newly launched units at a median price of $1,703 psf.

Homes in the $1,000-$1,500 psf price range also sold well. Projects with significant numbers of units sold in this price range include the 51-unit BelleRive on Keng Chin Road (where all 21 units launched in April were sold for $980-$1,404 psf) and Attitude at Kim Yam in the River Valley area (where 22 out of the 33 units launched were sold for $1,157-$1,306 psf).

However, there was still no activity in the luxury segment. April marked the fourth consecutive month with no units transacted above $2,500 psf, pointed out Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank’s director of consultancy & research. ‘Although the sale volume is showing signs of increase, price growth is still subdued,’ Mr Mak said.

Analysts said there could be a variety of reasons why the buying momentum carried on from February and March. Some 1,332 homes were sold in February, and another 1,220 in March – a huge pick-up in sales volume after just 108 homes were sold in January.

Talk that the United States and Singapore economies are recovering, combined with the recent stockmarket rally, could have injected confidence and lifted the sentiments of potential buyers, analysts said.

There is also an increasing sense among potential homebuyers that home prices could be nearing bottom, with URA’s statistics showing that private home prices chalked up their worst-ever quarterly decline of 14.1 per cent in Q1.

Developer sales for the January-April period are already about 90 per cent of all developer sales in 2008. Such launch and sales activity can be sustainable in the months ahead if the Singapore economy and employment market were to expand in 2009, said Knight Frank’s Mr Mak.

The second quarter may chalk up home sales volume of 3,000 units, said Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research. In Q1, 2,660 homes were sold.

Priya Sengupta, associate director of Savills’ research & consultancy unit, warned, however, that in the coming months, cautiousness is the key in developer launches as any sign of ‘false euphoria’ may scare the buyer away, leading to several months of inactivity again.

Others similarly called for ‘cautious optimism’.

There is still enough pent-up demand from homebuyers for a few more months, said Chua Yang Liang, Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of research for South-east Asia. But he added: ‘However, until there is a clear signal of a stabilisation and underlying positive growth in the real economy, the residual pent-up demand alone cannot be expected to lift the residential market in the long term.’

Source: Business Times, 16 May 2009

Private home sales in Singapore dipped slightly in April, but remained above the 1,000-unit mark for the third straight month.

Latest figures from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that 1,207 units changed hands, about one per cent shy of the number of sales transactions in March (1,220 units).

Demand for new private residential properties picked up recently because of lower home prices and expectations that the economy is recovering.

The recent rally in the stock markets has also helped. Some market watchers say a few investors may have taken profit and parked their funds in more stable investment options like real estate.
But some say the sales momentum may not last.

Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research and Consultancy, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “(I’m) looking at somewhere between 2,000 and 2,400 units that were pent up collectively over in the month of October, November, December and January.

“Unless there’s a fundamental growth in the real economy, this pent up demand, the residual effect may not sustain the property market in the long haul.”

Suburban areas continued to shine, with Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, Double Bay in Simei, Kovan Residences accounting for 298 units of total sales. The Arte at Thomson, which is located on the city’s fringe, was also popular, with 110 deals sealed.

In April, developers placed 1,083 new units for sale, up from the 832 launched the previous month.

Industry players say the momentum is starting to filter from the mass market segment to the mid-tier one, which comprises properties costing between S$900 and S$1,300 per square foot. They also expect to see more activity in the luxury home segment in the next few months.

High-end property launches jumped nearly four-fold on-month in April to 339, making up a third of all units offered. Sales in the prime areas soared to a 19-month high of 322 units.

Donald Han, Managing Director, Cushman and Wakefield Singapore, said: “We are going to see more launches potentially in the core central area, in district 9, 10 and part of 11, particularly for some of the collective enbloc sales which have been bought by developers.

“Some of them are pretty much ready to be launched – they’ve got their showflats ready. So there will be more launches in these prime areas, as part of strategies for developers to test waters for the mid- and upper-end residential market.”

Looking ahead, analysts say developers may not raise prices but rather reduce the discounts offered.

On the whole, prices of private homes are expected to fall by a single digit percentage point range for the next few quarters.

Market watchers project that some 6,000 units will be sold this year if the economic conditions stabilise.

Source : Channel News Asia, 15 May 2009

Vacancies hit 10% in Q1; broader property market sees prices fall across sectors; rentals also slide, URA data shows

This segment took a hit for the second consecutive quarter, government data showed. The broader property market also saw prices and rentals slipping.

‘Many of the corporates we talk to are well advanced in implementing their restructuring programmes. From this, we deduce we may be going through the period of sharpest contraction in office demand now. Contraction may ease in the second-half,’ he said.

The weak demand in the office sector also rubbed off on business park space, which saw negative take-up of about 215,000 sq ft in Q1, against positive take-up of some 10,700 sq ft in Q4 2008. Vacancy rate for the sector increased from 6.2 per cent in Q4 2008 to 9.7 per cent in Q1 2009.

In the private residential segment, URA’s overall islandwide price index slipped 14.1 per cent in Q1 over the preceding quarter, slightly steeper than the flash estimate decline of 13.8 per cent. The Q1 drop was also the biggest quarterly drop to date. The index has now eased 21.2 per cent since peaking in Q2 last year.

Colliers International director Tay Huey Ying says: ‘Mass market homes could see more gradual price corrections averaging about 8 to 12 per cent over the next three quarters (from Q1 2009 levels) as more sellers in the secondary market as well as developers with unsold units from earlier launches can be expected to adjust the pricing of their properties to near-current levels.’

She predicts bigger average price declines of 10-15 per cent for the mid-tier and high-end/luxury segments over the same period.

URA’s private residential rental indices show that the sharpest contraction in Q1 was for non-landed homes in the Core Central Region, which shrank 10.3 per cent quarter on quarter. The overall private residential rental index slipped 8.5 per cent in Q1, bigger than the 5.3 per cent drop in Q4. ‘The decline in rents could be attributed to supply outstripping demand as more expats left the country and to more new projects being completed,’ CBRE executive director Li Hiaw Ho said.

Developers sold a total 2,596 private homes in Q1, about six times the 419 units in Q4 2008.

The latest Q1 number was 64 units lower than the 2,660-unit figure collated from monthly developer sales stats (for January to March 2009). The decline reflects lapsing of options on units sold earlier in the quarter, URA’s spokeswoman said.

Market watchers also observed a slight easing in residential supply.

Some 27,423 private homes are expected to be completed between Q2 2009 and 2011, lower than the 31,004 units projected for completion between 2009 and 2011 in URA’s Q4 2008 data.
The smaller pipeline supply partly reflects the completion of 2,230 units in Q1 2009.

Developers may also have postponed redevelopment of some of the sites they had bought through en bloc sales and delayed construction, said URA’s spokeswoman.

URA’s shop rental index eased 3.3 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1, after dipping 0.6 per cent in Q4. The all industrial rental index slid 5.6 per cent in Q1, also worse than the 3.7 per cent fall in Q4.

Summing up prospects for Singapore’s property markets, Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng said: ‘For the private residential sector, there’s evidence of a pick-up in activity – not just in the primary market but also subsales and resales. For office and industrial, there are going to be more rental declines because of the economic slowdown. Retail will be difficult. New malls opening this year may drum up business, but it will be at the expense of existing malls, given that tourism numbers are weak.’

Source: Business Times, 25 April 2009

Q1 sees rise in resale and subsale deals as prices get more attractive

(SINGAPORE) The pick-up in private home sales by developers has spilled over to the secondary market. Falling prices are greasing the flow.

Caveats have been lodged for 1,063 private homes in the resale market in the first three months of this year, up 11.7 per cent from the preceding quarter. In the subsale market, 384 caveats were lodged in Q1 2009, reflecting a 44.4 per cent increase from the Q4 2008 figure, according to Savills’s analysis of caveats captured by the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s Realis system.

Resales and subsales refer to secondary market transactions. Subsales involve projects that have yet to obtain Certificate of Statutory Completion while resales relate to projects that have received CSC. CSC is typically obtained anywhere from three to 12 months after the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).@ Marina Bay, The Cosmopolitan and Rivergate have received TOP in 2008/2009, while One Amber and The Centris will get TOP soon, Savills said.

Market watchers said that this could be because many specuvestors who bought on deferred payment schemes (DPS) may be inclined to offload their units as the TOP date approaches, when they have to pay up the bulk of the purchase price to developers.

However, CB Richard Ellis executive director Joseph Tan pointed out that regardless of whether buyers opted for DPS, private housing projects are typically a hive of activity around the time they receive TOP, drawing buyers who want to move in themselves or to rent out immediately.

He also attributed the increase in subsale and resale transactions in Q1 to ‘prices being at fairly reasonable levels now’, with the stock market rally improving sentiment.

Mr Tan said that whether the buzz in the secondary market continues will depend on the stockmarket. ‘So long as the Straits Times Index remains fairly stable, it will give comfort to investors that the property market is close to bottoming out, given the price correction in the past 12-15 months,’ he added.

According to DTZ’s figures, which are based on resale prices, the average freehold luxury condo and apartment price of $1,880 psf in Q1 this year marks about a one-third drop from the peak of $2,800 psf in late 2007/early 2008.

The most expensive subsale deal (in terms of psf price) in Q1 this year was a 29th floor unit at Orchard Residences that changed hands for $2,579 psf. In absolute dollar quantum, the most expensive subsale deal was an 11th floor apartment at The Tate Residences at Claymore Road, which sold for $5.93 million ($1,850 psf).

As for resale transactions, the top grossers were a 10th floor apartment at Richmond Park at Bideford Road which sold for $2,199 psf and a 25th floor unit at Four Seasons Park at Cuscaden Walk that fetched $6.5 million ($1,701 psf)

The average prices of resale and subsale transactions at the most popular projects in Q1 2009 were generally lower than in the preceding quarter as well as the same period last year.

City Square Residences, the most popular subsale project in the first three months of this year with 41 units, saw an average price of $804 psf, down 5 per cent from the $845 average subsale price in Q4 2008 and 15 per cent below the $947 psf average subsale price seen in Q1 2008.

Average prices for 11 of the 12 most popular subsale projects in Q1 this year fell between one and 14 per cent from the preceding quarter. The exception was Clementiwoods Condo, where eight subsale deals were done at an average of $664 psf in Q1, some 5 per cent higher than in the previous quarter but down 7 per cent from the same period a year ago.

Compared with Q1 last year, average prices for all 12 top-selling subsale projects in Q1 2009 fell between 4 per cent (Centris) and 36 per cent (The Cosmopolitan).

As for resale transactions, the 11 hottest developments saw quarter-on-quarter price declines ranging from 4 per cent (for The Lakeshore) to 19 per cent (Bayshore Park) in Q1. The Lakeshore was the most popular resale project in the first quarter, with 27 units changing hands, followed by Costa del Sol, with 11 units.

Savills Singapore head of research Priya Sengupta noted that the 11 most popular resale projects in Q1 were all in the mass and mid-tier sectors. ‘Amid the economic uncertainties, affordability remains a key consideration for home buyers/investors; 100 of the 113 deals in the 11 most popular resale projects in Q1 were at below $1 million,’ she said.

Resale activity for high-end projects was limited. ‘This could be attributed to the price disparity between sellers and buyers as the latter expect further downward price adjustment in the near future, as well as the stricter home loan criteria in terms of loan-to-value ratio, especially for investors,’ Ms Sengupta said.

Mass and mid-tier projects also saw more subsale transactions than high-end projects. Much of the subsales activity in Q1 surrounded projects that have either received TOP recently or are close to receiving it. For instance, City Square Residences, The Esta, The Sail

Source: Business Times, 24 April 2009