With 1,423 private homes sold in H1, it is far ahead of all other developers

(SINGAPORE) Is the interest absorption scheme (IAS) helping to grease home sales?

Private home sales in Singapore dipped slightly in April, but remained above the 1,000-unit mark for the third straight month.

Latest figures from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that 1,207 units changed hands, about one per cent shy of the number of sales transactions in March (1,220 units).

Demand for new private residential properties picked up recently because of lower home prices and expectations that the economy is recovering.

The recent rally in the stock markets has also helped. Some market watchers say a few investors may have taken profit and parked their funds in more stable investment options like real estate.
But some say the sales momentum may not last.

Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research and Consultancy, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “(I’m) looking at somewhere between 2,000 and 2,400 units that were pent up collectively over in the month of October, November, December and January.

“Unless there’s a fundamental growth in the real economy, this pent up demand, the residual effect may not sustain the property market in the long haul.”

Suburban areas continued to shine, with Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, Double Bay in Simei, Kovan Residences accounting for 298 units of total sales. The Arte at Thomson, which is located on the city’s fringe, was also popular, with 110 deals sealed.

In April, developers placed 1,083 new units for sale, up from the 832 launched the previous month.

Industry players say the momentum is starting to filter from the mass market segment to the mid-tier one, which comprises properties costing between S$900 and S$1,300 per square foot. They also expect to see more activity in the luxury home segment in the next few months.

High-end property launches jumped nearly four-fold on-month in April to 339, making up a third of all units offered. Sales in the prime areas soared to a 19-month high of 322 units.

Donald Han, Managing Director, Cushman and Wakefield Singapore, said: “We are going to see more launches potentially in the core central area, in district 9, 10 and part of 11, particularly for some of the collective enbloc sales which have been bought by developers.

“Some of them are pretty much ready to be launched – they’ve got their showflats ready. So there will be more launches in these prime areas, as part of strategies for developers to test waters for the mid- and upper-end residential market.”

Looking ahead, analysts say developers may not raise prices but rather reduce the discounts offered.

On the whole, prices of private homes are expected to fall by a single digit percentage point range for the next few quarters.

Market watchers project that some 6,000 units will be sold this year if the economic conditions stabilise.

Source : Channel News Asia, 15 May 2009

Developers test waters at some projects by cutting back on discounts

(SINGAPORE) Some developers have quietly started raising prices a notch as they test waters after strong sales volumes seen in the first quarter.

Price adjustments are often made by reducing discount levels. On a project average basis, the effective prices for some developments may have gone up between 2 and 5 per cent compared with levels earlier this year, according to developers and property consultants.

‘Developers aren’t raising prices overnight. Prices are being adjusted only after clear buying momentum has set in for a project. If you look at the first and last units sold in the project, the price difference could be, say, 10 per cent; but if you look on a project average basis, the price increase would be less than 5 per cent,’ says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

The recent stock market rally has generated its share of positive sentiment. Even so, property agents say that prices of only the better-selling units have been raised in some projects, while the others have seen more widespread rises. ‘Developers are careful; if they push up prices too fast, potential buyers may start looking at other projects,’ one agent said.

The recent price adjustments have to be viewed against the significant price declines before that, seasoned players point out. For instance, Q1 2009 prices of mass-market condos were about 10 per cent off the peak levels in late 2007/early 2008, while for luxury condos, the price decline was steeper, at around 30-40 per cent.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah says that developers started to inch up prices in April and May from Q1 levels. ‘In the secondary market, sellers have been more aggressive; some are asking about 5 to 10 per cent more than in Q1,’ she added.

Property giant Far East Organization’s residential projects such as the Mi Casa condo in Choa Chu Kang, The Lakeshore in Jurong, Hillview Regency in Bukit Batok, Floridian at Bukit Timah Road (non-premium units), and Vida at Peck Hay Road are among those that have seen slight price gains lately.

Rival City Developments is also said to have incrementally raised prices for The Arte at Thomson as sales progressed briskly. The developer has sold more than 250 units since it previewed the mid-end project in March.

BT understands that prices of the remaining 80-plus units have been adjusted upwards slightly this week. The average price is now about $900 psf and the freehold project includes a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom units.

Bukit Sembawang is also said to have introduced a single-digit per cent price hike for later units (apartments) at The Verdure at Holland Road after the initial batch of units were sold.

UOL Group and Kheng Leong are also understood to have upped prices selectively – for better-selling units – at Double Bay Residences in Simei.

A major developer said: ‘Demand is better now. People are prepared to come to the negotiating table and not baulk at prices, compared with last year when it was very difficult to even get buyers to sit down. I think there’s a sense that the worst is over.’

He says that the quantum of price appreciation that a developer can achieve in the current market will hinge on a project’s location, the nature of the development and the profile of its buyers. ‘For instance, for a prime district project with a lot of small units costing $1-2 million each, you can adjust prices a bit more, especially if you have a fair number of foreign buyers,’ according to the developer. ‘Mainland Chinese buyers are more optimistic, and can accept price hikes better as they have seen an upturn in their own property market,’ he added.

Mr Tan says that there’s currently a ‘sweet spot’ in the Singapore market for projects priced below $1,000 psf and on a lump-sum basis costing $1 million to $1.2 million per unit (for three-bedroom units) and $800,000 and below (for two-bedroom units). Their prices can take a sub-10 per cent increase without affordability being seriously dented.

Mr Tan argues that a small price increase will not generally price buyers out of the market or send them to the sidelines again – ‘especially if they think the worst is over and don’t want to miss the boat’.

‘Even if the view is that we’re not at the bottom yet, there seems to be a greater sense of price stability now. The thinking now is that if prices drop a further 5 or 10 per cent, can I live with it?
Three months ago, there seemed to be no bottom,’ Mr Tan recalls.

Agreeing, CB Richard Ellis executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says: ‘Once people are more confident, they can accept the fact that price may be higher, but in an improving situation. If I believe the market has bottomed, the closer I buy to the bottom, the better it is for me. That sort of thinking is also being fuelled by the stock market rally; traditionally the residential property market lags the stock market by three to six months.’

Source: Business Times, 13 May 2009

Condo-style flats popular; private homes see encouraging sales

THOUSANDS of people flocked to check out some of the new housing developments on sale over the weekend, scenes more reminiscent of a boom, not a recession.

As one industry watcher told The Straits Times: ‘The mass market is still moving. If you price it correctly and reasonably, people will still buy.’

The hottest ticket in town was clearly the Parc Lumiere project, which drew an astonishing 6,500 visitors over the weekend.

Buyers had begun queueing last Friday before its viewing period started on Saturday, with 829 people eventually in the line for flats in the estate, which is being developed under the Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS).

There was no balloting for the project: Just turn up and book.

Developer Sim Lian Group said it has already sold 306 units out of a total of 360. All the four-room flats, priced between $378,000 and $425,000, have been sold.

Only the low-floor five-room flats are left. The five-roomers are priced from $462,000 to $575,000.
‘After going through Premiere @ Tampines, we thought we would try another way of selling. When you do it by ballot, a lot of people just try for fun. A lot who were keen didn’t get the chance to book,’ said Sim Lian executive director Diana Kuik.

But some potential buyers felt the walk-in selection sale method, essentially a first-come, first-served sale, was inconvenient. One said the sale came at too short a notice for him to take leave to queue. A parent said her son had been waiting for the project but was travelling in Europe.

Sim Lian said it has had feedback from happy buyers, including a pair of siblings happy to get a unit next to each other.

The second DBSS project, The Peak @ Toa Payoh, also had a busy weekend with 1,711 applications lodged as of 6pm yesterday for the 1,203 units.

This project by developer Hoi Hup Sunway is being sold by ballot, with applications open until next Tuesday.

About 22,500 people had visited the showflat from last Wednesday until it closed yesterday, said Ms Kellie Liew, executive director of projects at HSR Property Group, the marketing agent for The Peak. More than half of the applicants are interested in the five-room flats, with about 30 per cent looking at the four-roomers, she said.

In the private home market, the freehold The Arte in Jalan Datoh attracted about 1,000 people over the weekend, said developer City Developments (CDL).

The average price at the 336-unit project – which boasts relatively large flats – is $880 psf, with most units going for under $2 million each.

CDL said it sold another 20 units over the weekend for $30 million, bringing total sales to 170.
‘The sales volume indicates that buyers have greater confidence in the property market and in the future of their investment,’ said CDL group general manager Chia Ngiang Hong.

‘This reinforces CDL’s view that the current market is now attracting savvy but cautious investors.’
A large number of buyers have private home addresses, he said, with many saying they want to invest in another property or to move into a ‘new and upscale residence’. CDL said it has extended the interest absorption scheme to these buyers.

Two other large projects that were launched last month also saw encouraging sales.

A further 22 apartments were sold at the 457-unit Mi Casa condominium in Choa Chu Kang in the past week, bringing total sales to 202 units. Prices hovered around $635 psf.

More than half of the 646 units at Double Bay Residences in Simei have been sold. This was the best-selling project last month, with 264 units being bought.

About 60 per cent of the 68-unit Verdure in Holland Roadhas also been sold since its preview more than a week ago.

Source: Straits Times, 21 April 2009

But healthiest quarterly sales in more than a year may not signal sustained recovery

(SINGAPORE) A ray of hope dispelled some gloom in the private home market yesterday when new data showed developers selling 1,220 new units in March. This brings the number sold in Q1 2009 to 2,660 – the best quarterly performance since Q3 2007.

But could this be a false dawn? Citing weak economic fundamentals, several industry watchers believe that it is still too early to say if a nascent recovery has begun.

According to Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) figures from developer submissions, private home sales held up in March and dipped just 8 per cent below the 1,332 units sold in February.
Both months’ showings were markedly better than in January, when buyers took up just 108 units.
In fact, the number of units sold in Q1 2009 has already reached around 60 per cent of that for the whole of 2008.

‘Most of the demand in the first three months of the year was from Singaporeans and permanent residents, a significant proportion of whom comprised HDB upgraders,’ said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

Indeed, new launches in mass-market to mid-tier projects contributed to the bulk of sales in March. The most popular was Double Bay Residences in Simei – developers UOL Group and Kheng Leong sold 264 units at a median price of $659 psf.

Far East Organization also sold 101 units at its Mi Casa condominium in Choa Chu Kang at a median price of $617 psf, while 90 units at City Developments’ The Arte fetched a median price of $874 psf.

There is ‘strong demand for lower-range properties in the outer areas that are priced below $1,000 psf,’ observed PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail.

The mass-market and mid-tier sectors also dominated recent launches. DTZ senior director of research Chua Chor Hoon noted that 95 per cent of all launches in Q1 09 were outside the prime districts 9, 10 and 11. Developers brought out 832 new units in March, down 22 per cent from the 1,072 in February.

In contrast, activity in the Core Central Region continued to lag behind in March. Reception to The Mercury at Shanghai Road was the strongest, with buyers taking up 62 units at a median price of $1,148 psf.

The retreat of foreigners from the luxury property market could be one reason for the weak performance, said Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak. ‘Preliminary figures suggest that the percentage of foreign transactions stood at 16.8 per cent in Q1 2009, settling at levels observed in Q2 2003 when the Sars outbreak badly affected the market.’

On the whole, most observers BT spoke to believe that the property market still faces downside risks – the coming months may see prices stay flat or fall and the number of units sold may decrease.

‘Historically, economic recovery precedes property market recovery,’ said DTZ’s Ms Chua. ‘Right now, there is no economic fundamental to support a bottoming of the property market.’

Just on Tuesday, the government cut its 2009 economic growth forecast again to a range of minus 6 to minus 9 per cent.

Already, there are signs of developers lowering prices to push sales. For instance, 6 units in Kovan Residences went for $782-$865 psf in February, achieving a median price of $809 psf. By March, 56 units were sold at a median price of $705 psf, with overall prices ranging from $597-$823 psf.

In fact, price cuts and the relatively affordable costs of smaller units could have spurred demand in the last few months, said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee. CIMB analyst Donald Chua also expects more price adjustments to happen at projects that have not been fully taken up.

In terms of new units that can be sold in the next nine months, few market watchers were confident of seeing the 1,000-a-month mark being crossed often. Some estimate that the transaction volume this year may range from 6,000-8,000 units in total. This would still be an improvement on 2008, when 4,264 units were sold.

Still, it’s not smooth sailing. Even some popular projects are taking back units. URA data indicates that buyers returned 20 units at the Caspian and 10 units at the Alexis between February and March.

URA will release more concrete data on home sales on April 24. Among other factors, its real estate statistics for Q1 2009 will take into account options on units sold that subsequently lapsed later.

Source: Business Times, 16 April 2009

THE bumper private property sales recorded in February were no fluke.

For a second straight month, home hunters defied the weakening economy to buy more than 1,000 units last month.

Property consultants say buyers are attracted to what they regard as good buys in the moderately priced mass market.

Still, they warn that these strong buying levels are probably not sustainable.

Last month, property developers sold 1,220 new private homes, just shy of the 1,332 units sold in February.

It was the first time in over a year that the market has seen two consecutive months with more than 1,000 units sold. Sales for both months were a stunning contrast to the dismal 108 in January.

Another striking figure: First-quarter new private home sales hit 2,660 units, representing 62 per cent of all new homes sold during the whole of last year.

February sales – boosted mainly by two new launches Alexis and Caspian – were the highest since August 2007.

Figures compiled by the Urban Redevelopment Authority also showed 832 new housing units were launched last month, compared with 1,072 units in February and just 204 units in January.
Most units sold last month were in the mass market, along with a few city-fringe small-format apartments at condominiums such as Domus and The Mercury.

HDB upgraders were the hottest group of buyers. CBRE Research said that last month alone, they bought 550 to 600 units at mass market projects such as Caspian, Double Bay Residences, Kovan Residences, Livia, Mi Casa and The Quartz at median prices of $610 per sq ft (psf) to $740 psf.

A survey of first-quarter caveats lodged for this market segment indicated an average price of $695,000, said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho. ‘This is probably a good time for HDB home owners to upgrade to private property as the price gap between private properties and HDB resale flats has narrowed.’

Said Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying: ‘Developers have lowered their price expectations for new launches and generally cut prices of unsold units. Buyers are biting as there is pent-up demand.’

The top three sellers in March were Double Bay Residences, Mi Casa and The Arte. About 85 per cent of units sold last month were priced below $1,000 psf, said PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail.

The high-end showed some life with 70 units launched and some sales, including one Orchard Scotts unit at $2,220 psf.

But overall, only 100 prime units were launched in the first quarter, or just 4.7 per cent of all units launched, well down from the 39.4 per cent of all units launched in the fourth quarter last year.

Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said this was partly due to the retreat of foreigners from the luxury market.

Preliminary data suggests foreign deals stood at 16.8 per cent in the first quarter – a level last seen when Sars badly hit the market in 2003, he said.

Market analysts say it is a good start to the year, but they do not expect the strong buying to continue long-term.

‘In the short term, this rate of buying can continue provided developers lower or maintain their prices,’ Chesterton Suntec International’s research and consultancy head Colin Tan said of March sales.

But in the long term, it is not sustainable, he said. ‘The last time the market sold so many new units (14,811 units) was in 2007. That was when the deferred payment scheme was available. And it has since caused indigestion in the top end of the market.’

Unless the Singapore economy and employment market improve significantly this year, only 6,000 to 7,000 new private homes are expected to be sold, said Mr Mak.

He said healthy demand for mass market homes is likely to continue only as long as average HDB resale prices do not fall by more than 7 per cent year on year.

‘Many in the mass market segment are buying now and banking on their future earnings to service their loans as they are afraid of missing the boat,’ said Mr Mak.

Source: Straits Times, 16 April 2009

With over 80 new housing projects islandwide, buyers have more choices but completion delays will keep prices stable

Home buyers keen to upgrade from a Housing Board flat to a private condominium will have plenty of choice this year. That is going by data compiled by real estate services company CB Richard Ellis.

A total of 82 projects are currently ready to be put up for sale throughout this year, said CBRE, an international company with a research team in Singapore.

From the coastal areas of Pasir Panjang and Punggol to the residential zones of Simei and Sixth Avenue, there is a private apartment development waiting to be launched in almost every corner of the island.

Most are in the non-landed condominium category, aimed at Housing Board upgraders and young family starters.

CBRE’s list defined the projects on the list as those that are ‘launch-ready’. By this, it means projects that have all the necessary permits from the authorities so they can be marketed, although construction work may not have started.

Already, four have been launched – including the latest, Mi Casa condominium at Choa Chu Kang, whose units went on sale this weekend. A further two are expected to be launched within the next two months.

With private property prices falling when HDB resale flat prices are still holding fairly steady, it is music to the ears of those who want to upgrade but have not been able to amid high prices and not so many mass-market launches in recent years.

Writer Ng Hui Hui, 28, who is looking for a private apartment but finds prices a bit high now, feels the high number of launches will increase her chances of finding one at the right price.

‘I’m more hopeful because the number of launches offers a lot of choices. There’s more for me to consider,’ she said.

HDB upgraders have flexed their muscle at condo launches so far this year, buying many units at The Caspian beside Lakeside MRT station, Double Bay Residences in Simei and The Quartz in Buangkok, for example.

Mr Joseph Tan, CBRE’s executive director, residential, notes: ‘If there are a number of HDB upgraders who are ready to enter the market, the sales momentum can be sustained.’

Over at the 18-storey The Mercury in Shanghai Road launched three weeks ago, all 67 units – priced from over $700,000 for a 635 sq ft apartment – were snapped up.

Mr Victor Soh, director of the developer, Fortune Shanghai Road, said: ‘There was no delay in launching the project despite the bad market – we launched it when the project was ready. There were quite a number of people waiting for us to launch.

‘All our units have already been sold and we’re ready to start construction.’

While house-proud Singaporeans will enjoy poring over the launch-ready list, imagining their dream home, most projects may not actually go up for sale soon, as developers wait and see how the economy goes.

Only 10 out of the 82 could name a date or period, but even they said their dates are subject to change.

Still, judging by the small amount of dates given, the hold-out may not go beyond this year or the early part of the next, as the furthest indicated date a developer gave was the first half of next year.
Such delays also mean prices will not plummet too sharply, said a spokesman for listed developer City Developments.

He said: ‘This has helped to balance current demand and supply by mitigating the supply of new apartments entering the market.’

The tough economic times are weighing on some developers, with Ms Chua Chor Hoon, a senior research director for global real estate adviser DTZ, saying: ‘Some have been responding to the slow market by deferring projects that are due for completion to later years.’

A spokesman for residential project Verdure – a planned 75-unit, freehold development in Holland Road – said: ‘The market is so bad, we can’t launch it.’

Another, representing the exclusive 26-unit The Verv @ River Valley, said it was putting off its launch, explaining: ‘Blame it on the economy.’

Both spokesmen declined to be named.

The experience of upcoming mid-market, 24-unit Evergreen View at Geylang Lorong 36 echoes this.

Mr Thomas Sim, associate manager of real estate firm PropNex Realty, which is the selling agent, said: ‘We’ve only had the soft launch last month so far because the show unit is only slated for completion in May, and also partly because the market is poor now. As it is, the reaction from the soft launch wasn’t very good.’

A key part of marketing a condo is to build a show flat to entice prospective buyers. Another reason some projects are being delayed is that developers are reviewing their plans in order to reconfigure units to a smaller size, say industry players. The smaller sizes make the units more affordable.

Knowing about the list of 82 ‘launch-ready’ projects is good news for the likes of home-hunter John Yeo, 38.

The sales manager says: ‘This means I have time and don’t have to rush. I can take my time to choose. But of course, price and location must also be right.’

‘I’m more hopeful because the number of launches offers a lot of choices. There’s more for me to consider’ Writer Ng Hui Hui, a house hunter who finds prices too high now

‘This means I have time and don’t have to rush. I can take my time to choose. But of course, price and location must also be right’ Sales manager John Yeo, who is happy with the list of 82 launch-ready projects

Source: Straits Times, 11 April 2009

More are buying new private condo units as prices come down

Property transaction volumes rebound in Feb, but analysts warn surge may not last

AFTER almost half a year of dismal sales, the private property market staged a rebound last month with 1,323 new units sold — about10 times :the 108 units sold in January.

But while the surge had the mass market segment to thank, the current enthusiasm may not be sustainable, say analysts.

Some 60 per cent of February’s sales — a month that saw the highest volume of transactions since August 2007 — came from high-profile, mid-tier projects such as Caspian and Alexis, according to Government statistics released yesterday. Third on the list was The Quartz, which sold 168 units (see box above).

Located near MRT stations and generally priced below $1,000 per square foot, the three projects appealed to HDB upgraders who had been holding back during the property bull run between 2006 and 2007, said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

Overall, 70 per cent of all units sold last month were below $1,000 psf, noted PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail — a sign that most of the sales were to HDB upgraders.

Discounted prices also lured in buyers. Units at The Quartz, for instance, were relaunchedlast month at around $417 to $684 psf, lower than December’s transacted range for the project of $766 to $814 psf.

While February’s strong sales are a shot in the arm for the beleaguered market, analysts do not think they point to a broad recovery.

“As the real estate market is expected to continue to soften this year, such a burst of buying activity may occur from time to time,” said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank’s consultancy and research director. “They may not be sustainable in the medium term unless there is an overall improvement in the economy.”

Jones Lang LaSalle’s South-east Asia’s head of research Chua Yang Liang concurred, saying the strong showing last month was probably a “short term blip” in the larger scheme of things. He said: “The pricing of projects within the affordable total quantum range has coincided with preceding periods of stable and strong public housing prices … supporting the renewed buying interest.”

With the economy expected to slow further, “hardcore incentives” such as pricing discounts and rental guarantees may be required to maintain the same number of sales, he added.

This month, newly-launched mid-end projects are expected to keep private home sales at an encouraging level — as shown by recent sales of Double Bay Residences at Simei and Suites@Kembangan.

PropNex’s Mr Mohamed Ismail predicts March sales to be about 800 units, which would be lower than February but still a big improvement from the preceding months.

Overall, CBRE’s Mr Li sees the year as presenting “a window of opportunity where the gap between private home prices and HDB resale prices is narrow”.

Source: Today, 17 Mar 2009