Posts tagged: deferred payment scheme (DPS)

May 26 2009

Developers dangle rent guarantees

Buyers respond well to scheme introduced at some projects

(SINGAPORE) Some developers here are turning to rental guarantees to lure buyers in the current down-market.

Under such schemes – which are offered only for certain units within selected projects – developers help buyers secure tenants, and also ensure that the owner gets a minimum pre-determined yield.

Far East Organization, for example, offers rental guarantees for selected units in selected projects such as Orchard Scotts, Vida, River Place, Tanglin View and Icon.

‘Through our marketing efforts over the years, we found that investors do not have the time to lease out or manage the tenancy of their apartments that they have bought from us,’ said Chia Boon Kuah, chief operating officer for property sales at Far East Organization.

‘Therefore, in 2006, we rolled out the rental guarantee scheme to assist our investment buyers in leasing out their properties. With our own in-house leasing and estate management teams, we are able to provide a seamless one-stop service to our buyers.’

For Vida, which is located in Cairnhill Rise, Far East is now offering a guaranteed rental yield of 5 per cent a year. This, according to Far East, can potentially work out to a return on invested equity of about 10-13 per cent a year.

‘Vida is a superior investment as we are offering a yield or return on invested equity of around 10-13 per cent per annum,’ said Far East in a recent letter to potential buyers.

Several other developers are offering schemes along the same vein.

At Belle Vue Residences, Wing Tai Holdings is offering a guaranteed return of 20 per cent on the downpayment a buyer makes if he picks up a unit using the deferred payment scheme. (DPS).
Under the scheme, the buyer will have to pay 20 per cent of the property’s price as the
downpayment. For a property worth $4 million, for example, this works out to $800,000.

But under Wing Tai’s scheme, he will get some of that money back.

Buyers who use the DPS to buy units in Belle Vue will get a guaranteed income of 10 per cent a year for two years on their downpayments. The guarantee will kick in once Belle Vue receives its temporary occupation permit (TOP) at the end of 2010. Using the same example as earlier, the buyer will get some $160,000 two years after TOP.

Market watchers said yield guarantee schemes are generally well-received in a down-market.
Investors, for example, snapped up units at high-end residential development Gallop Gables after The Straits Trading Company offered a two-year guaranteed rental yield of 7 per cent on 10 units there in April. All 10 units at the freehold Farrer Road estate sold in three days.

Elsewhere, at its preview for The Mezzo, Soilbuild Group Holdings offered a 6 per cent annual rental guarantee for two years, apart from the interest absorption scheme. The rental guarantee kicks in right after the TOP date. Soilbuild said recently that the launch of the first phase of The Mezzo was ‘met with an encouraging response’.

Market sources told BT that at least a few more new upcoming projects will offer variations of such schemes. Developers have historically offered such schemes to entice buyers when the property market is weak.

Hong Leong Group’s 71-unit luxury development Cuscaden Residence had such a scheme when it was launched in 2004 shortly after the Sars scare. Wing Tai Holdings also offered something similar for Duchess Crest in Bukit Timah in 1998, during the Asian financial crisis.

However, yield guarantees are a popular option for developers, said Joseph Tan, CB Richard Ellis’ executive director for residential. This is because such schemes force developers to manage units once they have been sold.

A check with Singapore’s three largest listed developers – CapitaLand, City Developments and Keppel Land – showed that none of them are currently offering any kind of rental guarantee schemes.

Units with yield guarantees could also come at a higher price, said Peter Ow, executive director for residential at Knight Frank. For example, developers who offer the interest absorption scheme at their properties usually charge a price premium of 2-3 per cent for units sold under the scheme, Mr
Ow pointed out. This is because the developers have to absorb the interest costs that would otherwise have been borne by the buyers. The same principle applies for units offering yield guarantees, he said.

Source: Business Times, 26 May 2009

May 19 2009

Interest absorption greasing market – selectively

(SINGAPORE) Is the interest absorption scheme (IAS) helping to grease home sales?

The answer seems to be yes, if there is no price premium charged by developers for the IAS.
However, if developers charge more in exchange for interest absorption, then the buyers’ profile may decide whether they opt for IAS, industry players say.
Generally, buyers in projects targeted primarily at owner occupiers, such as suburban, mass-market condos prefer to buy on normal progress payment scheme (NPS) rather than IAS, under which they may pay only the initial 20 per cent with no further payments until the project is completed.
For example, slightly over a quarter of those who bought 626 units at Caspian near Jurong Lake since its release in February and 100 units at Waterfront Waves in the Bedok Reservoir area relaunched at lower prices since March have opted for IAS.
At Double Bay Residences in Simei, the proportion of IAS buyers is said to be higher, at 40-50 per cent. At Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, no buyer has opted for IAS. Those who bought on IAS in these projects paid 2 or 3 per cent more for their units. The thinking is that mass-market home buyers are usually more price sensitive and prefer NPS if it costs them less, say property pundits.
Projects that have drawn investors may see more buyers inclined to opt for IAS even though there is a price premium. Here, again, the quantum of premium may matter.
For instance, Frasers Centrepoint, which is charging 2 per cent more under IAS for Martin Place Residences, has found that 75 per cent of those who picked up the 80 units in the condo over the weekend opted for IAS. On the other hand, only 5 per cent of buyers of the 109 units that
CapitaLand sold since last Friday at The Wharf Residence (nearby) chose IAS. This could be due to the heftier premium of 5 per cent for IAS.
However, some observers suggest another reason: Wharf Residence could have drawn a fair number of short-term investors.
With IAS, buyers have to immediately sign up for a housing loan (even if they don’t need to make a drawdown until much later). And they will have to pay a penalty if they redeem their loan early.
‘So short-term buyers in an investment grade project may prefer to opt for NPS to avoid being tied down to a loan and having to pay a penalty to the bank for early loan repayment,’ explains Knight Frank executive director Peter Ow.
Agreeing, EL Development managing director Lim Yew Soon told BT that feedback from some buyers who chose NPS for its Illuminaire On Devonshire project (despite the group not charging any price premium for IAS) indicates that they did not intend to hold their units till the project was completed.
The penalty for early loan redemption is typically said to about 1.5 per cent of the loan quantum. ‘So it may be a deterrent for smaller speculators,’ as Mr Lim suggests. However, this may not be a serious issue for deep-pocketed investors eyeing bigger gains.
‘Investors are taking advantage of IAS, which is the old DPS (deferred payment scheme) all over again, except that you have to talk to the banks earlier. Essentially IAS, like DPS, provides a financial option on the real estate market. By paying just 20 per cent of the value of the property, you can take a (bet) that property prices will appreciate by when it’s time to pay up,’ said a property analyst.
Under IAS, buyers have to sign up at once for a home loan. This is unlike DPS, where they could wait much later, closer to the project receiving Temporary Occupation Permit, when they have to pay the bulk of the purchase price to the developer.
Still, some like Mr Ow argue that IAS does not encourage speculation. ‘Whether speculation kicks in depends on the stage of the market. In today’s condition, only the very brave will come in to speculate.
‘IAS involves obtaining a bank loan approval upfront and banks are cautious about granting loans to property investors. It is quite unlikely banks will approve mortgages for those buying multiple units in a project.’
Others point out the current buying flurry does not stem from IAS. ‘The buying interest seems spurred by positive sentiments about the market as people are drawn to buy/upgrade due to reasonable prices,’ a spokesman for Far East Organization said.
Source: Business Times, 19 May 2009
May 09 2009

Developer says: time to pay up Buyer says: give me more time

ANOTHER buyer who purchased luxury condominiums in bulk under the deferred payment scheme is now having trouble paying up.

Keppel Land said yesterday that an Indonesian investor who bought 51 units at The Suites @ Central in Devonshire Road has asked for more time to cough up the final payments.

The investor paid $1,806 per sq ft (psf) for the freehold apartments, which were bought in June 2007, Keppel said in a filing to the Singapore Exchange. It would not disclose the total price of the units or whether the investor is an individual or an institution, such as a company or a fund.

But a check of the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) Realis caveats shows that a series of 51 units were sold at that time for a total of $127 million. The units were not bought in a single block and do not appear to make up entire floors, but span the second to the 33rd floors.

The units were bought under the deferred payment scheme. This means the buyer made a downpayment of 20 per cent of the purchase price and then deferred the rest of the payments until the apartments were completed.

The Suites @ Central was completed in February, but the buyer failed to pay up on time.

Two other buyers, both Singaporeans, also missed the payment deadline, Keppel said. One had bought two apartments in the fully-sold project; the other had bought three.

Keppel has received payment for the other 101 apartments in the 157-unit project, which is a 60-40 joint venture between Keppel and Chip Eng Seng.

The Indonesian buyer has asked for an extension of the payment deadline in order to ‘arrange funds for payments’, Keppel said.

The developer has agreed to a six-month extension starting from yesterday, but is requiring the Indonesian buyer to pay $500,000 per month during the extension period. The first payment has already been received, Keppel said.

Other developers have also recently reported problems collecting payments for units they sold under the deferred payment scheme.

MCL Land ran into trouble last month with the buyer of its Fernhill condominium off Stevens Road. The buyer, reported to be a company called Concordia Overseas controlled by a Hong Kong resident named Chan Ki, had purchased all 25 units in the project and managed to resell five soon after.

But when the time came to make payment for the 20 units it still owned, Concordia missed a few deadlines. It subsequently managed to resell 19 units in time to meet the final deadline, but reportedly at a loss.

The price Concordia paid for the units was $1,410 psf, but the Business Times reported that it fetched only $1,180 psf for the 19 units it resold.

Market watchers said that if the Indonesian buyer of the 51 units at The Suites @ Central has to offload the apartments in a hurry, it may end up making a loss.

The average price of apartments at the project has fallen to about $1,470 psf, according to five caveats lodged for units that have been sold so far this year.

More buyers with payment problems could surface in the coming months, as the property slump coincides with the fallout from the deferred payment scheme, which was scrapped in October 2007.

Some 29,250 homes planned for completion between last year and 2013 were offered with the deferred payment scheme, the URA revealed last year. Analysts have estimated that about 14,000 were actually sold under the scheme.

But even if a handful of buyers default, it may not be statistically significant, noted Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

At CapitaLand’s RiverGate, about 2 per cent of buyers have missed payments since the project was completed in March, the developer said on Thursday. Most of the project’s buyers had opted to take the deferred payment scheme.

‘Two per cent is not an alarming figure,’ said Mr Mak. ‘Once in a while you get cases like a single buyer unable to pay for 51 units but, if you look at the bigger picture, it may just be a small proportion.’

But he added that next year will be the time of reckoning, as many projects that were sold during the height of the market – in the second half of 2007 and early last year – will be completed then, with the bulk of their payments due.

Source: Straits Times, 9 May 2009

May 05 2009

Buyer resells 19 of 20 Fernhill units

A CHINESE investor that failed to pay up for 20 of the apartments it bought at MCL Land’s The Fernhill condominium has managed to resell 19 of those units.

Concordia Overseas, controlled by a Hong Kong resident named Chan Ki, was reported to have missed about $30 million in payments that were due when the project was completed recently, according to reports by the Business Times (BT).

Concordia had reportedly bought all 25 units in the freehold condominium, located off Stevens Road, in January 2007 at $1,410 per sq ft (psf). It then resold five units within the year, at an average price of almost $2,200 psf, according to BT.

The apartments were all bought under the deferred payment scheme, which allows a purchaser to pay an upfront deposit for the apartments – in this case 20 per cent – and then defer the rest of the payments until the units are completed.

But when the time came to pay in full for the remaining 20 units, Concordia failed to do so. MCL Land, a subsidiary of Hongkong Land, sent a payment notice last month but did not receive the money.

Under the sale and purchase agreement, MCL Land is now entitled to give 21 days’ notice to Concordia to rescind the agreement. If Concordia does not make payment by the end of the 21 days, it will forfeit its 20 per cent deposit and MCL Land can take back the units and resell them.
In a filing to the Singapore Exchange yesterday, MCL Land said the 21-day notice period will start today.

It also said it has been informed by Concordia’s lawyers that Concordia has successfully resold 19 units and will complete the sale this month, before the 21-day period expires.

If this happens, the units will not be forfeited and MCL Land will be able to recognise the revenue and profit from these units in its second-quarter results, the developer added.

MCL Land did not book the income from these 20 units when it released its first-quarter results last week. It included profit only from the five units that had been resold in 2007.

The Fernhill deal is being closely watched by the property industry as one of the first major examples of negative fallout from the deferred payment scheme, which was removed in October 2007.

Now that home values are falling, developers who sold projects at the peak of the market are on edge. If an apartment has lost more in value than the initial 20 per cent downpayment, the developer will find itself out of pocket if the buyer walks away from the agreement.

Source: Straits Times, 05 May 2009

Apr 24 2009

Secondary market buzzes as prices fall

Q1 sees rise in resale and subsale deals as prices get more attractive

(SINGAPORE) The pick-up in private home sales by developers has spilled over to the secondary market. Falling prices are greasing the flow.

Caveats have been lodged for 1,063 private homes in the resale market in the first three months of this year, up 11.7 per cent from the preceding quarter. In the subsale market, 384 caveats were lodged in Q1 2009, reflecting a 44.4 per cent increase from the Q4 2008 figure, according to Savills’s analysis of caveats captured by the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s Realis system.

Resales and subsales refer to secondary market transactions. Subsales involve projects that have yet to obtain Certificate of Statutory Completion while resales relate to projects that have received CSC. CSC is typically obtained anywhere from three to 12 months after the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
@ Marina Bay, The Cosmopolitan and Rivergate have received TOP in 2008/2009, while One Amber and The Centris will get TOP soon, Savills said.

Market watchers said that this could be because many specuvestors who bought on deferred payment schemes (DPS) may be inclined to offload their units as the TOP date approaches, when they have to pay up the bulk of the purchase price to developers.

However, CB Richard Ellis executive director Joseph Tan pointed out that regardless of whether buyers opted for DPS, private housing projects are typically a hive of activity around the time they receive TOP, drawing buyers who want to move in themselves or to rent out immediately.

He also attributed the increase in subsale and resale transactions in Q1 to ‘prices being at fairly reasonable levels now’, with the stock market rally improving sentiment.

Mr Tan said that whether the buzz in the secondary market continues will depend on the stockmarket. ‘So long as the Straits Times Index remains fairly stable, it will give comfort to investors that the property market is close to bottoming out, given the price correction in the past 12-15 months,’ he added.

According to DTZ’s figures, which are based on resale prices, the average freehold luxury condo and apartment price of $1,880 psf in Q1 this year marks about a one-third drop from the peak of $2,800 psf in late 2007/early 2008.

The most expensive subsale deal (in terms of psf price) in Q1 this year was a 29th floor unit at Orchard Residences that changed hands for $2,579 psf. In absolute dollar quantum, the most expensive subsale deal was an 11th floor apartment at The Tate Residences at Claymore Road, which sold for $5.93 million ($1,850 psf).

As for resale transactions, the top grossers were a 10th floor apartment at Richmond Park at Bideford Road which sold for $2,199 psf and a 25th floor unit at Four Seasons Park at Cuscaden Walk that fetched $6.5 million ($1,701 psf)

The average prices of resale and subsale transactions at the most popular projects in Q1 2009 were generally lower than in the preceding quarter as well as the same period last year.

City Square Residences, the most popular subsale project in the first three months of this year with 41 units, saw an average price of $804 psf, down 5 per cent from the $845 average subsale price in Q4 2008 and 15 per cent below the $947 psf average subsale price seen in Q1 2008.

Average prices for 11 of the 12 most popular subsale projects in Q1 this year fell between one and 14 per cent from the preceding quarter. The exception was Clementiwoods Condo, where eight subsale deals were done at an average of $664 psf in Q1, some 5 per cent higher than in the previous quarter but down 7 per cent from the same period a year ago.

Compared with Q1 last year, average prices for all 12 top-selling subsale projects in Q1 2009 fell between 4 per cent (Centris) and 36 per cent (The Cosmopolitan).

As for resale transactions, the 11 hottest developments saw quarter-on-quarter price declines ranging from 4 per cent (for The Lakeshore) to 19 per cent (Bayshore Park) in Q1. The Lakeshore was the most popular resale project in the first quarter, with 27 units changing hands, followed by Costa del Sol, with 11 units.

Savills Singapore head of research Priya Sengupta noted that the 11 most popular resale projects in Q1 were all in the mass and mid-tier sectors. ‘Amid the economic uncertainties, affordability remains a key consideration for home buyers/investors; 100 of the 113 deals in the 11 most popular resale projects in Q1 were at below $1 million,’ she said.

Resale activity for high-end projects was limited. ‘This could be attributed to the price disparity between sellers and buyers as the latter expect further downward price adjustment in the near future, as well as the stricter home loan criteria in terms of loan-to-value ratio, especially for investors,’ Ms Sengupta said.

Mass and mid-tier projects also saw more subsale transactions than high-end projects. Much of the subsales activity in Q1 surrounded projects that have either received TOP recently or are close to receiving it. For instance, City Square Residences, The Esta, The Sail

Source: Business Times, 24 April 2009

Apr 21 2009

DPS buyer with 20 units at The Fernhill drags feet on payment

Episode watched by developers that had sold multiple units to foreigners under DPS

(SINGAPORE) A China investor that bought 20 units at MCL Land’s The Fernhill condo has failed to pay roughly $30 million that became due when the project received Temporary Occupation Permit recently.

MCL sent the notice seeking payment to buyer Concordia Overseas Pte Ltd 14 days ago. By the
due date yesterday, the payment had still not been made, BT understands.

This development on the deferred payment scheme (DPS) – which was scrapped in October 2007 – is being closely watched.

Under the Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA), MCL will now wait for another 14 days and if the payment is still not made by then, the developer can serve a 21-day notice on Concordia to repudiate the SPA. After that, if there’s no payment, MCL would be entitled to treat the 20 per cent paid so far by Concordia as forfeited and resell the units.

Concordia, controlled by Hong Kong resident Chan Ki, who has developed commercial buildings in Shanghai, had bought all 25 apartments in The Fernhill in January 2007 at $1,410 per square foot.
It flipped five of these units to foreigners at an average price of nearly $2,200 psf later the same year. JTResi brokered both sets of deals for the five-storey freehold project at the corner of Orange Grove and Fernhill roads.

Concordia bought the units from MCL on DPS, and paid an initial 20 per cent of purchase price in 2007. The 20 units it still holds were purchased for nearly $47 million and it was asked to pay another 65 per cent – around $30 million – after the project received TOP last month.

In case there is a hitch in receiving the payment, analysts say, MCL Land is pretty well covered, as it can walk away with the 20 per cent downpayment from Concordia. Its ‘breakeven cost’ so to speak on the 20 units would be $1,128 psf ($1,410 psf sale price to Concordia less the 20 per cent collected so far).

Based on recent transactions at Gallop Gables on Farrer Road and The Verdure on Holland Road, MCL should easily be able to sell the units individually for more than that sum. An average resale price of $1,250 or so could mean another round of profits.

BT understands that MCL did not extend DPS to the buyers of the five units who picked up their apartments from Concordia in the subsale market. They have been making normal progress payments to MCL.

While MCL is on a firm footing, other developers who sold their projects on DPS at peak prices in 2007 and early 2008, may have reason to worry in case buyers do not pay up once the projects are completed in the coming months.

This is because the values of many such units could be down more than the 20 per cent initial payment and the developer would be out of pocket if it were to treat the SPA as being repudiated. Such developers may have to sue buyers for specific performance – complete the SPA at the contracted price.

But some developers may agree to a payment extension or restructuring for local buyers in hardship.

Developers may find it tough to take legal action against foreign buyers domiciled offshore who walk away from purchases. ‘The practical thing to do may be to treat the SPA as repudiated, take possession of the units and try to resell them or lease them out. Once you go down the route of suing defaulting buyers for specific performance, it will be some time before you can take possession of the units,’ a developer said.

In case The Fernhill units end up being resold by MCL, the price could have implications for neighbouring projects. The price benchmark may hit DPS buyers in these projects who have yet to secure a loan. Even those that have secured loans may be affected as the bank may now assume a lower value for the properties and ask borrowers to top up more equity.

Some analysts said that the latest development at Fernhill may be a sign of things to come as more projects are completed. The situation of multiple unit buyers, especially if they are foreigners, will be keenly watched.Source: Business Times, 21 April 2009

Apr 14 2009

Property valuers feel the buzz

Recent strong home sales, refinancings help boost demand

(SINGAPORE) Away from the glare of the market, valuations departments of property consultancy groups here have been quietly doing brisk business despite the property slump.


Valuers attribute this in part to a pick-up in sales at private residential property launches since February. Also contributing to demand are buyers who are getting loans for units bought earlier on Deferred Payment Schemes (DPS), and borrowers who are seeking better refinancing packages and switching banks.

Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng told BT the number of valuation instructions for private residential properties clinched by his firm has increased 36 per cent in Q1 this year compared with the preceding quarter. For March alone, the figure has gone up 59 per cent from the preceding month. These instructions, which are requested either by lending banks or borrowers, refer to paid valuations and not indicative ones, which are often provided to banks for free or for a token sum.

Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of valuation advisory services Tan Keng Chiam said his firm has seen a 10-20 per cent rise in the number of weekly valuation enquiries since late March compared with the January-February period. ‘But this has not translated to huge volumes of business,’ he added.

Mr Tan said there have been ‘more enquiries for refinancing purposes as well as a noticeable, though slight, increase related to home purchases’.

Despite higher business volumes, none of the firms, citing competition, has any plans to raise its valuation fees, which can be as little as $300 to $500 for valuing small apartments. Commercial buildings cost several thousands to tens of thousands of dollars to value, depending on the size and complexity of the valuation required, which also depends on the lender’s profile. Package fees for valuing an entire portfolio of buildings for a property group or real estate investment trust (Reit) can run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

‘For Reits, in particular, valuations are a lot more meticulous. We have to go through individual tenancies and do more checks in general. And we don’t just use the comparables method but also discounted cashflow to arrive at the property valuations,’ Knight Frank’s Mr Tan said.

Most valuers BT spoke to say a key reason they have been kept busier lately is the gush of private residential property launches of affordably priced mass- market and small-sized apartments. With fewer launches these days offering DPS, buyers have to sign up for a housing loan soon after their purchase – whether they are opting for interest absorption or taking a normal progress payment scheme.

For projects sold earlier on DPS that are nearing completion (when DPS expires), buyers need to get their home loans in place, and this has also led to more valuations required, explains Mr Tan of Knight Frank.

In addition, the increase in primary market home sales by developers has spilled over into the secondary market, and this has been another source of higher demand for valuations.

The head of another property consulting group told BT that some real estate funds have been asking for monthly valuations of their property portfolio to ‘track the market more closely instead of relying just on annual valuations’.

DTZ’s Mr Ho says Reits seeking refinancing have also contributed to an increase in valuation requests at the firm.

Valuers note that besides Reits, other property owners who have opted to refinance mortgages – for their homes, for instance – because of more attractive packages offered by rival banks have also raised demand for valuation services.

DTZ’s Mr Ho said that the firm’s professional services – which besides valuation include research and consultancy, property management and project/ facilities management – account for about 30-40 per cent of revenue in normal times, with agency activities like property sales, leasing and investment sales taking the lead.

Source: Business Times, 14 April 2009

Some property consultants say banks are requesting more frequent valuations of properties in their loans portfolio, given declining property values. ‘It’s not just for housing loans, but offices, factories, etc. I suppose banks have to monitor if the properties are in negative equity,’ says DTZ Southeast Asia’s CEO Ho Tian Lam.

Said Joseph Wong, OCBC Bank’s group chief credit officer (consumer credit risk), group risk management: ‘We conduct regular reviews on our loan portfolio which cover various factors including update of valuation of properties.’

Mr Ho said the volume of valuations at DTZ has risen more than 10 per cent in the past one or two months compared with the same year- ago period. The firm has redeployed two senior marketing executives from its investment sales department to its valuations department.

Mar 26 2009

Sniffing out buys in the mass market

CHUA CHOR HOON and LIM HUI LING compare the current situation with past downturns to gauge where we stand today in terms of oversupply and time to recovery

WITH the economic downturn, the residential market landscape has changed as developers shrink the size of units and offer steeper discounts to lure cautious buyers while banks tighten credit. So how will this downturn play out?

We compare the current situation, particularly in the mass market segment, with past downturns to gauge how prices are likely to perform and when recovery will be in sight.

The mass market segment has proved to be less volatile than homes located in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 – on the way up as well as on the way down.
While average prices of luxury homes rose 66 per cent during the property bull run in 2007, average prices of three-bedroom leasehold homes outside the prime districts only rose 27 per cent.

Gentler declines
Similarly, on the way down, mass market homes have seen gentler declines compared with higher-end condos. Last year, prices of luxury homes fell 30 per cent while average prices of non-landed three-bedroom leasehold homes outside the prime districts fell just 8 per cent to $560 per square foot as at end-2008.

The average prices of homes outside prime districts as at end-2008 are 33 per cent higher than the trough prices in 1998 and 27 per cent higher than the trough prices in 2003. However, they are 25 per cent lower than the peak in 1996 and 11 per cent lower than the peak in 2000.

The extent of price fall, while dependent on economic performance, also depends on supply in the private residential market. Based on Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) numbers as at end-2008, an average of 11,626 private housing units a year are scheduled for completion in the five years from 2009 to 2013. This is 34 per cent more than the annual average of 8,671 units in the last 10 years (1999 to 2008).

However, the overall housing supply is much less compared with the level in 1998 which saw a supply glut in the public housing market. Around 31,600 public housing flats were completed each year between 1996 and 2000 compared with about 5,000 units completed annually in the last five years. To avoid over-building of flats, the Housing Development Board (HDB) had put in place the build-to-order (BTO) system in 2001 to provide the main supply of new flats.

Under the BTO system, construction will only start when a majority of the units have been booked and buyers would have to wait three to four years for the flats to be completed. HDB’s stock of unsold inventory is now estimated to be at a record low of under 1,000 units. Hence, the limited supply of new HDB flats will provide some support for the public housing resale market. This, in turn, should help hold up prices of mass market private homes.

The strong demand in the HDB resale market is closing the price gap between HDB flats and non-landed private homes, especially those in the suburban areas. However, there is room for the price gap to narrow further based on historical trends.

The price premium of private homes over HDB flats rose sharply in 2007 to unsustainable levels and will narrow as the private property market declines more steeply than the public housing market. Prices of HDB resale flats are likely to decline as the economy contracts further. The moderating rate of increase in the HDB resale price index and declining demand in Q4 2008 are signs of a weakening HDB resale market. Some HDB resale flats have already transacted below valuation this year. In this bearish scenario, private property prices would be further depressed. In Q1 2009, developers have already cut prices of new leasehold projects by 5-10 per cent.

So how long will this downturn last? The previous downturns lasted 2.5 to five years. While the property market saw a quick recovery after the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the recovery was slow after the 2001 Internet bubble burst, being compounded by a spate of adversities – the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Iraq war in 2003 and the Sars epidemic in 2003. The current downturn in the private residential market started only four quarters ago and is unlikely to bottom this year as the economic outlook is deteriorating. As to the timing and speed of the market’s recovery, that will hinge on the economic recovery of the major developed nations.

Going forward, developers are expected to resize the units of developments that have yet to be launched to make them more affordable. This would be aided by declining construction costs which would lower total development costs.

Purchases under IAS
Developers continue to offer an interest absorption scheme (IAS) which is similar to the deferred payment scheme (DPS). Under the IAS, buyers sign up for a loan with a bank but won’t have to fork out any cash other than the 20 per cent downpayment until the project gets its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP). Although buyers may find it attractive not to have to make any progressive payment or service a loan before TOP, they should be aware that they may have to pay a premium of around 3 per cent under the IAS.

In addition, they would usually be locked into the loan for two years under the scheme. So complications could arise should they need to sell their property within the lock-in period.
Meanwhile, those shopping around for a property now should keep this checklist in mind:

  • Purpose (whether it is for own stay or investment)
  • Holding period
  • Budget
  • Preferred location
  • Surrounding environment
  • Proximity to workplace, school and amenities
  • Accessibility to expressways and public transport nodes
  • Rental yield/resale value (especially for investment)
  • Reputation of the developer
  • Design of building and unit layout.

While one naturally prefers to buy at the bottom of the cycle, this is harder to do with property than with stocks as each unit and project is different. The unit you want may not be up for sale when prices are at their lowest.

And there are a range of personal decisions that cannot be perfectly timed with the market cycle. For instance, newly married couples setting up home, parents moving closer to their children’s schools, foreigners buying for their children who are studying in Singapore, etc. In addition, a home buyer with a longer holding period is more prepared to ride out the down cycle.

A home buyer should work out his budget to ascertain if he can afford to service the mortgage even in the worst-case scenario. A general guide is that the monthly mortgage payment should not be more than 40 per cent of monthly household income. But in these uncertain times, it would be more prudent to consider a lower monthly mortgage service ratio. The key at this point is to buy within one’s means.

Chua Chor Hoon is senior research director, DTZ; Lim Hui Ling is senior research analyst, DTZ

Source: Business Times, 26 Mar 2009

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