Analysts ask if February spike from new heartland condos can be repeated

(SINGAPORE) Developers sold 1,323 new housing units in February – eleven times more than in January.

Urban Redevelopment Authority figures show sales hit their highest level since the previous peak of 1,723 units in August 2007, leading some to say that market momentum has returned.

Colliers International’s director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying said that if developers stick with current pricing and product strategies, ‘this trend will stay’.

‘We have always said there are buyers waiting to buy,’ she said, adding that smaller units at lower prices ‘are within a buyer’s risk appetite’.

DTZ senior director Chua Chor Hoon said: ‘Despite the credit crunch there is still plenty of liquidity in the market. Many people have not committed to purchases in the past two years, and savings interest rates are so low now.’

Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho also reckons low interest rates could be a factor in the sales spike, saying ‘abysmally low loan and deposit rates remove the incentive to keep idle balances in cash’.

Still Mr Leong does not think February’s momentum is sustainable. ‘The risk going forward is that HDB upgrader demand is likely to unravel as the pain from rising joblessness and lower wage payouts starts to bite,’ he said.

He also noted that two new launches accounted for the spike in February. ‘Take those two projects out and you have a good idea what is happening in the broader market,’ he said.

The two projects are the 712-unit Caspian at Jurong and the 293-unit Alexis @ Alexandra, which sold 517 and 293 units at median prices of $603 and $1,083 psf respectively.

Other significant transactions in February were at the 625-unit The Quartz, with 168 units sold at a median price of $591 psf; the 38-unit Palmeria Residence with 22 units sold at a median price of $775 psf; and the 31-unit D’Chateau @ Shelford with 21 units sold at a median price of $1,000 psf.

PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail believes more than 50 per cent of February’s sales involved HDB upgraders, as 70 per cent of the units sold were under $1,000 psf.

‘Developers have slashed prices, accepting minimal profits,’ he said. ‘This makes it irresistible for serious buyers, be they investors or HDB upgraders.’

Jones Lang LaSalle’s local director and head of research (South-east Asia) Chua Yang Liang said all regions registered strong take-up rates, with 102 units sold in the Core Central Region, 840 sold in the Outside Central Region and 381 units sold in the Rest of Central region.

But he doubts the rally can be sustained. ‘The strong market showing in February is likely to be a short-term blip in the overall larger scheme of things,’ he said.

While February sales were healthy, returned units from speculators without the means to hold could become a dampener. Already, classified advertisements have appeared for sub-sales at Caspian and Alexis.

DMG Research analyst Brandon Lee thinks speculation is still ‘subdued’, with most buyers either Singaporeans or permanent residents purchasing units to occupy.

‘Volume in the sub-sale market remains tepid, at less than 100 units transacted in February,’ he said.

Selling 1,000 units a month will be hard to achieve, he feels. ‘A more reasonable figure would be 500-600 units for the next three months. After that, the picture would possibly revert back to a normal 200-300 units as the economy worsens and the HDB resale market softens.’

March sales have already hit about 300 units, with 210 sold at the 646-unit Double Bay at Simei, as well as about 25 at the 104-unit Domus in Novena. It is also understood that the 60-unit Kembangan Suites project is fully sold.

Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said that leaving aside Caspian and Alexis, February’s sales of 513 units were the strongest in seven months.

But he cautions that there is a ‘limited’ pool of buyers for small units, and says HDB upgraders could become more discerning. ‘If an HDB upgrader moves from a four or five-room HDB flat to a one or two-bedroom condo, it’s not really upgrading,’ he said.

Source: Business Times, 17 Mar 2009

SINGAPORE: The sale of private residential properties shot up more than tenfold in February to 1,323 units, compared to just 108 in January.

Homebuyers thronged the showflats of mass-market projects like The Caspian in Boon Lay and The Alexis in Alexandra, and they propped up the property sales figures in February, accounting for more than 70 per cent of the units sold for the month.

Property-watchers said those upgrading from public housing were attracted by affordable pricing and proximity to amenities like train stations.

But with the economy likely to contract further, resulting in more job losses in the coming months, February’s home sales may not be sustained.

Priya Sengupta, associate director, Research & Consultancy, Savills, said: “The coming months may not see such a high take-up, but if the momentum goes on and off in this manner, the confidence will return.”

Observers said the February data suggested that buyers are willing to jump in at attractive prices, so developers are likely to launch similar projects with absolute unit prices at under S$1 million.

Brandon Lee, investment analyst, DMG & Partners Securities, said: “I would expect more of these to come in the form of mass market. On the other hand, we could also be looking at a slow progression towards mid and prime projects. These projects might include re-launched projects at heftier discounts.”

Analysts said new mass market, mid-tier properties are likely to fall in the price range of between S$550 and S$600 per square foot. Developers are also likely to offer hefty discounts of up to 30 per cent for some selected properties.

Observers said they expect prices of prime properties to weaken further, falling to about S$1,600 per square foot.

Source: Channel News Asia, 16 Mar 2009

THE show-flat crowd – that rarest of species these days – has been lured back into the market by two new developments that held soft launches this week.

Hundreds of people turned up at the Double Bay Residences showroom in Simei when its doors opened for a private preview yesterday.

Developer UOL Group said more than 80 units have been sold so far, at an average price of $600 per sq ft (psf) to $650 psf. The development’s six retail units have all been sold as well.

Chief operating officer Liam Wee Sin noted that the response was strong ahead of the 99-year leasehold condominium’s official launch next weekend.

UOL has so far released 250 of the 646 units in Double Bay for sale. One-bedroom units in the Simei Street 4 project start from $420,000, while four-bedders cost at least $930,000.

The crowds were also out for The Mercury in Shanghai Road, which was said to be more than 60 per cent sold since it started previews on Thursday.

The 67-unit freehold project is priced from about $1,040 psf. One-bedroom units at the River Valley estate start from $740,000, while two-bedders are going for about $1.1 million. condominium in Jurong. To date, over 500 of the 712 units have been sold.

Caspian’s success was mirrored at The Alexis in Alexandra Road, which sold out within a few days of its preview.

Property consultants say the main draw for these projects is their attractive prices, which, at well under $1 million, are affordable for HDB upgraders. Even mid-tier projects such as The Alexis and The Mercury feature smaller units to offset their higher per square foot prices. The Beverly condominium, although news reports said more than 300 people turned up for its launch last weekend.

Hiap Hoe released 31 of the 118 units at an average price of $750 psf. The apartments are a bit bigger than average, starting from 1,120 sq ft for the smallest two-bedroom units, which translates into somewhat higher prices per unit.

The developer is also not offering the interest absorption scheme for The Beverly, which was on offer for the Caspian and The Alexis and is available for Double Bay and The Mercury.

The fairly brisk sales for these projects come on the heels of a few successful launches recently, which appear to have boosted sentiment in the badly battered property market.

Last month, Frasers Centrepoint said it sold over 300 units in three days at its Caspian

‘These days, it looks like the total quantum of price is more important than the price per square foot,’ said Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak. ‘In some areas, prices have come down 20 per cent to 30 per cent from the peak, and there are probably people who see these buys as good bargains.’

Still, most of the sales activity are confined to the entry-level and mid-priced market. High-end projects are still facing a very challenging time, consultants say.

And while transactions are being steadily chalked up, there remain clear signs that not everything is fine and dandy in this economic recession.

At The Mercury, for instance, agents marketing the project said they had expected it to be fully sold within one day.

In Toh Tuck Road, off Upper Bukit Timah, boutique developer Hiap Hoe was said to have sold only a handful of units in

Under the scheme, buyers who take out a loan immediately on purchase pay only a down payment and defer remaining instalments until the project is finished.

Mr Liam of UOL, however, said more of Double Bay’s buyers opted for the normal payment schemes rather than taking up interest absorption.

The buyers so far have been a mixed bag – HDB upgraders, private home owners and owner-occupiers, and investors.

On the whole, the smaller units have proven more popular, he said, underscoring the importance of affordability. But he said an ‘encouraging’ sign was that buyers were also going for units on higher floors, which are more expensive.

‘We are seeing a flight to quality,’ he told The Straits Times. ‘If the price is within their budget, they will gun for the better units and the higher floors.’

HUNT FOR BARGAINS
‘In some areas, prices have come down 20 per cent to 30 per cent from the peak, and there are probably people who see these buys as good bargains.’ – Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy

Source: Straits Times – 7 Mar 2009

Success of two new launches encourages a few developers to release their projects

Thanks to the mini-buzz created by two new successful launches – Caspian in Jurong and Alexis @ Alexandra – a few developers have decided to release their projects for sale.

It is an improvement, even if it is just a slight one, from the very sombre mood a month ago, when market watchers were expecting the lull in the market to continue.

Over the weekend, TG Development launched 30 units of the freehold, 102-unit St Patrick’s Residences in St Patrick’s Road in the East.

On average, prices start at around $675 per sq ft (psf) for a two-bedroom unit and rise to about $900 psf for a four-bedroom penthouse.

Unit sizes range from 1,152 sq ft for the two-bedroom units to 3,423sqft for the four-bedroom penthouses. Some three-bedroom units can cost just under $1 million.

The interest absorption scheme, which allows buyers – if they take a loan from the start – to defer making any payments beyond the initial down payment until the project is completed, is offered at a 3 per cent premium.

Marketing agent Savills said the condominium offers quality furnishings and fittings usually associated with prime projects, and that a few units have been sold since the preview a week ago.

Near Upper Bukit Timah, Hiap Hoe has launched The Beverly, its 118-unit condo in Toh Tuck Road.

Each unit is served by a private lift. Prices start at $648 psf; the average price is $750 psf. This means that the total price per unit should start from just below $1 million.

Unit sizes range from 1,120 sq ft for the two-bedders to 4,187 sq ft for the four-bedders. There are also double-storey penthouses from 2,099 sq ft to 3,757 sq ft. Hiap Hoe is not offering the interest absorption scheme.

Other projects expected this month include Double Bay Residences in Simei, The Arte in Thomson, Domus in Irrawaddy Road and an 18-storey project in River Valley.

These are in the mass- to mid-market categories that, unlike the high-end segment, are still attracting buyers.

New home sales in January had plunged to a new low as developers and buyers kept to the sidelines.

The two new projects that sold very well about two to three weeks ago – Caspian and Alexis – helped revive the market mood to a certain extent.

The Caspian showflat was packed during the preview, when 300 out of 712 units were sold at average prices starting from $580 psf. So far, more than 500 units have been sold.

The 293 Alexis units were all sold at $950 psf to $1,250 psf, but the absolute prices were reasonable, given that most units are small.

At a results briefing last Thursday, City Developments’ Kwek Leng Joo cited the good take-up at the two projects as proof that there is still demand.

‘The good response to recent launches is true,’ he said.

Still, the stock market and buying sentiment remain weak.

Ms Phylicia Ang, director of Savills Residential, said: ‘The affordability threshold is key at this point.
In the current market, it is important to price projects at an attractive level to attract buyers.’

The UOL group should start selling the 646-unit Double Bay Residences near the Simei MRT station soon. It declined to give pricing details of the 99-year leasehold condo until the launch, but there is talk that prices will be around $650 psf to $680 psf.

The one-bedders start at 538 sq ft, the two-bedroom units from 915sq ft, while the big units can go up to 3,703 sq ft.

Along Thomson Road, The Arte is expected to be released for preview sale by the middle of the month.

Property agents have advertised the preview of the 336-unit, freehold condo at prices starting at more than $950 psf.

About half of the project, or 164 units, are three-bedroom units from 1,399 sq ft to 1,625 sq ft. Another 100 units are 1,873 sq ft four-bedders.

There are also advertisements for the preview of the 18-storey, 67-unit project in River Valley, which offers the interest absorption scheme. It has mostly small units – 32 are 635 sq ft apartments and 30 are 1,044 sq ft units.

A Chinese developer, Lakeview Developments, may also push out its 104-unit Domus this month.

High-end launches will likely be few and far between this year, as current demand is coming only from owner-occupiers or very small investors, according to a developer.

There should be more mass- to mid-market projects coming up in the next few months. These could include projects like the 99-year leasehold Ascentia Sky next to the Redhill MRT station. It offers two- to four-bedroom units from approximately 1,000 sq ft to 1,800 sq ft.

Source: Straits Times, 1 Mar 2009

Speculators were among buyers at the recent sell-out sale of all 293 units at Alexis @ Alexandra, a newly launched condominium.

Another project, Caspian, in Jurong, sold around 515 of its 712 units at about the same time.

Source: Straits Times, 1 Mar 2009

‘For sale’ ads followed both launches last month – but sub-sale buyers are not rushing in.

Yesterday, there was no huge crowd, but a steady stream of more than 300 people turned up at the launch of developer Hiap Hoe’s The Beverly in Toh Tuck Road.

Its spokesman did not say how sales went for the 31 apartments that were released in the 118-unit development at an average of $750 per sq ft.

Property agents reported signs of attempted ‘flipping’ – quick profit sales from having bought at the developer’s price – but they also said few sub-sale buyers were biting.

They noted that in the case of Alexis and Caspian, shortly after they were launched, ads for subsales began to appear.

An agent who declined to be named said about 10 per cent of Alexis’ 293 units were being flipped.
Property agents cited the relatively low pricing as reasons for buyers wanting to do a flip. Prices for Caspian apartments started at $580 psf, while those at Alexis @ Alexandra were priced on average at $850 to $1,100 psf.

In addition, property agent K.L. Goh, who is marketing two sub-sale units at Alexis, said: ‘Although the market is bad, Alexis is located near Queenstown MRT station and is highly sought after.’

The owners of a two-bedroom apartment are asking for $880,000, up from the $760,000 they paid for it.

Property agent Leslie Yap, who is helping a buyer market a two-bedroom apartment at Caspian for about $580,000, said: ‘She bought it at $527,400 and even if she can make a little profit, I think it’s quite good in such a short time.’

Meanwhile, agents said the response from sub-sale buyers was still rather cautious. Mr Yap said last Friday that he had received only one call that day for the Caspian unit.

‘Even though this is a very popular project, the response is still very bad and it may be difficult for buyers to make a profit right now,’ he said.

Mr John Murray, 41, who works in IT company EMC, was at the launch of The Beverly.

He said: ‘I’ve noticed that the prices are down from when I went house-hunting five or six months ago. This is actually a great time to buy.’

But he did not buy a unit yesterday.

(SINGAPORE) Developers are planning to launch more mass market projects this weekend to take advantage of a recent surge in buying interest.

Hiap Hoe Group, a niche developer, will officially launch its 118-unit The Beverly, located at Toh Tuck Road, this Saturday. The starting selling price is $648 per square foot (psf), which Hiap Hoe says is an ‘attractive starting selling price’.

‘We have designed The Beverly for those looking for affordable, high-quality residential developments in a good location,’ said Teo Ho Beng, the company’s managing director.

The Beverly’s two, three and four-bedroom apartments range from 1,120 sq ft to 4,187 sq ft, while its double-storey penthouses range from 2,099 sq ft to 3,757 sq ft and are each outfitted with a private roof garden and pool.

On the other side of the island at Pasir Ris, Sustained Land Pte Ltd will also officially launch Coastal Breeze Residences come this weekend. Two and three-bedroom units at the 63-unit development will sell for $610-$660 psf.

Sustained Land has sold 13 units in Coastal Breeze Residences since the start of 2008 in a soft launch. The units, which were mostly prime apartments on higher floors, went at an average price of $690 psf.

The remaining units are mostly three-bedders between 1159 sq ft and 1356 sq ft in size and there are also duplex penthouses. In terms of absolute value, for example, the price for a three-room 1159 sq ft unit starts at $712,000.

Meanwhile, the UOL Group is expected to launch its 646-unit Double Bay Residences in Simei sometime next week. Market talk has it that the project could be launched at $650-680 psf.

The three projects are coming hot on the heels of two successful launches earlier this month. Units at Frasers Centrepoint’s Caspian condominium near Jurong Lake and Alexis @ Alexandra, a project by joint venture partners Yi Kai Group and Fission Group, sold quickly upon the projects’ launches.

One market insider said that developers are taking pricing cues from each other, and making sure their newly launched projects are priced to sell. ‘There is a sense that people will only be willing to buy projects in the $600-plus psf range, and also only units that don’t cost too much in total. People don’t really want to pay more than $600,000 or $700,000-plus in these times,’ he said.

Developers are also throwing in more upmarket features into their mass market offerings to entice buyers. Each of The Beverly’s 118 apartments is served by private lifts that open into the lobby of its interior. UOL’s Double Bay Residences will also offer extras such as full-length windows in the kitchen, the company has said.

Source: Business Times, 26 Feb 2009

Other developers try to ride buying wave by relaunching units at lower prices

(SINGAPORE) The Alexis condo sold like hot cakes last week and now a few buyers at the fully sold project are trying to flip their units in the subsale market, notwithstanding the fact that Singapore is in the throes of its worst recession.

These buyers are seeking prices about $100 per square foot above what they had paid, translating to a net gain of around 10 per cent, property agents estimate.@ Shelford during the weekend at an average price of about $1,000-1,100 psf. Units cost between $900,000 (for a three-bedroom apartment) and $1.7 million (for a penthouse). About half or 16 of the total 31 apartments in five-storey freehold project are now sold, said the company’s managing director Alvin Ng.

Macly Capital is also said to have sold about 10 units over the weekend at Newton Edge.

Property market watchers say specuvestors may have been drawn to Alexis, near Queenstown MRT station, by developer EC Prime’s decision to offer buyers an interest absorption scheme without charging any premium (usually buyers have to pay about 3 per cent more for such schemes), as well as the relatively affordable investment sums for the mostly smallish units.

However, EC Prime’s director Melvin Poh refuted talk in some quarters that the company generated demand from agents who bought units, and that a substantial number of buyers picked up multiple units.

‘We have checked our sales records; there were only two families that bought multiple units – one family bought five units, and the other, three units. The rest of the buyers all picked up one unit each.

‘If agents from Huttons (Alexis’s marketing agent) or their close relatives bought, they would have to declare to us, and so far there have been none,’ Mr Poh said.

Alexis’s buyers were mostly Singaporeans and EC Prime, a joint venture between Yi Kai Group and Fission Group, has given them up to three weeks to decide whether they would like to opt for the interest absorption scheme (IAS).

Buyers had to pay 5 per cent of the purchase price when they booked a unit, that is, when they were issued an option by the developer. Eight weeks later, they will have to pay up another 15 per cent, with no further payment (under IAS) until the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit in about three years.

Those who do not exercise their options will forfeit a quarter of their 5 per cent deposit. For a $500,000 unit, that will amount to $6,250.

Those who buy on IAS will have to immediately sign up for a home mortgage with United Overseas Bank, and the credit assessment is expected to sift out financially weak buyers.

‘Alexis has drawn investors. Based on our sale prices, they could earn about 5-6 per cent yield from renting their units, given the location near an MRT station close to town,’ Mr Poh said.

Source: Business Times – 18 Feb 2009

Ripples from the strong sales momentum generated for the 293-unit freehold condo, comprising mostly smallish units costing between $420,000 and $800,000, spread to showflats of several other small and mid-sized developers. Some of them trimmed prices to give buyers an incentive to commit to a purchase.

The mini home-buying wave sparked earlier this month by Frasers Centrepoint’s launch of its Caspian condo in the Jurong Lake District, has led other developers to speed up launch plans for new projects, or to relaunch existing ones, with a price cut.

This weekend, GuocoLand will relaunch The Quartz condo near Buangkok MRT Station with a price cut of nearly 10 per cent.

The 625-unit, 99-year leasehold project is slated to receive Temporary Occupation Permit in a few months and is left with 182 units. For a start, GuocoLand is likely to push out about 60-odd units, all three-bedders and most of which will cost below $650,000. The average price of the units to be relaunched will be about $595 psf, compared with an average price of $650 psf that GuocoLand was selling the project at during the height of the market in 2007.

The project is being marketed by CB Richard Ellis and ERA.

In the River Valley area, Fortune Development has sold 12 units at RV Suites since Saturday. The 96-unit freehold project’s average price is $1,300 psf and most of the units are smallish, at about 500 to 550 sq ft and cost about $630,000 to $730,000. This brings total sales in the seven-storey project to 42 units, according to Fortune general manager Victor Soh.

Over in the Shelford Road area, East Coast Properties sold 14 units at D’Chateau

A bad month for home sales could be followed by upturn

JANUARY was a ghastly month for the private home market. Sales hit a two-year low, as the prime downtown areas saw zero launches and just about half of all units launched that month ended up finding buyers, according to official statistics released yesterday.

Source: Today – 17 Feb 2009

But even though the overall market has kicked off 2009 on a whimper, the mass-market segment may still hold up in the months including February.

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), 107 private residential units were sold last month out of a total of 204 units launched by developers. This sale number is the lowest recorded in the last two years, said ropNex, a real estate agency.

“And for the first time, there were no units launched in the Core Central Region, which comprises districts 9, 10 and 11 as well asMarina Bay and Sentosa,” said Knight Frank consultancy and research director Nicholas Mak.

“This is unsurprising given that present market conditions have prompted a wait-and-see attitude, and thus resulted in the primary market activity for this sector coming to a near-halt,” said Mr Mak.

It was in the non-prime districts that demand was relatively rosy. Mid-tier and mass-market projects saw their January take-ups rise 50 and 30 per cent respectively from December, Mr Mak said.

“Close to 90 per cent of all the transactions that took place were at below $1,000 psf,” noted PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail. “This goes to show that there are still buyers for projects in the outer areas … as long as the quantum value is reasonable, probably not exceeding the $800,000 mark.”

Analysts expect pent-up demand for mid-tier projects to pick up from this month,particularly from HDB upgraders as the resale market for public housing is still healthy.

Two developments have already seen good take-up. Alexis near Queenstown MRT was launched last Thursday and within three days, sold all of its 293 units at an average price of $850 to $1,150 psf. Over in Jurong West, the Caspian condominium has sold 470 out of 712 units at an average of $600 psf.

This means that the sales volume for this month is likely to reach 1,000 units if developers continue to offer the “right product at the right price”, said Colliers International’s research and advisory director, Tay Huey Ying. That would be “a level not seen since August 2007 when developers sold some 1,723 new units”, she said.

“More developers may be encouraged to ride on this buying wave and launch their projects in the second half of the month,”Ms Tay added.

Pricing, however, will be an influential factor. Jones Lang LaSalle’s research head in South-east Asia, Dr Chua Yang Liang, said projects that enjoyed stronger demand in January could have been given a boost by the easing of median prices.

For example, The Aristo@Amber in the Katong area sold at $990 psf last month – down 1.2 per cent from $1,002 in December. Nova 88’s median pricing also softened 4.2 per cent from $988 to $947 psf. Both enjoyed good sales: At The Aristo@Amber, all 10 units launched last month sold out and another four unsold units from previous months were also taken up, while Nova 88 in the Balestier area sold 16 units out of the 40 units launched.

“There is no doubt that there is an economic downturn but despite this, projects like Caspian and Alexis are faring well in the subdued market, showing that there is cash out there,” said Mr Donald Han, managing director of consultancy Cushman and Wakefield.