With 1,423 private homes sold in H1, it is far ahead of all other developers

But healthiest quarterly sales in more than a year may not signal sustained recovery

(SINGAPORE) A ray of hope dispelled some gloom in the private home market yesterday when new data showed developers selling 1,220 new units in March. This brings the number sold in Q1 2009 to 2,660 – the best quarterly performance since Q3 2007.

But could this be a false dawn? Citing weak economic fundamentals, several industry watchers believe that it is still too early to say if a nascent recovery has begun.

According to Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) figures from developer submissions, private home sales held up in March and dipped just 8 per cent below the 1,332 units sold in February.
Both months’ showings were markedly better than in January, when buyers took up just 108 units.
In fact, the number of units sold in Q1 2009 has already reached around 60 per cent of that for the whole of 2008.

‘Most of the demand in the first three months of the year was from Singaporeans and permanent residents, a significant proportion of whom comprised HDB upgraders,’ said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

Indeed, new launches in mass-market to mid-tier projects contributed to the bulk of sales in March. The most popular was Double Bay Residences in Simei – developers UOL Group and Kheng Leong sold 264 units at a median price of $659 psf.

Far East Organization also sold 101 units at its Mi Casa condominium in Choa Chu Kang at a median price of $617 psf, while 90 units at City Developments’ The Arte fetched a median price of $874 psf.

There is ‘strong demand for lower-range properties in the outer areas that are priced below $1,000 psf,’ observed PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail.

The mass-market and mid-tier sectors also dominated recent launches. DTZ senior director of research Chua Chor Hoon noted that 95 per cent of all launches in Q1 09 were outside the prime districts 9, 10 and 11. Developers brought out 832 new units in March, down 22 per cent from the 1,072 in February.

In contrast, activity in the Core Central Region continued to lag behind in March. Reception to The Mercury at Shanghai Road was the strongest, with buyers taking up 62 units at a median price of $1,148 psf.

The retreat of foreigners from the luxury property market could be one reason for the weak performance, said Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak. ‘Preliminary figures suggest that the percentage of foreign transactions stood at 16.8 per cent in Q1 2009, settling at levels observed in Q2 2003 when the Sars outbreak badly affected the market.’

On the whole, most observers BT spoke to believe that the property market still faces downside risks – the coming months may see prices stay flat or fall and the number of units sold may decrease.

‘Historically, economic recovery precedes property market recovery,’ said DTZ’s Ms Chua. ‘Right now, there is no economic fundamental to support a bottoming of the property market.’

Just on Tuesday, the government cut its 2009 economic growth forecast again to a range of minus 6 to minus 9 per cent.

Already, there are signs of developers lowering prices to push sales. For instance, 6 units in Kovan Residences went for $782-$865 psf in February, achieving a median price of $809 psf. By March, 56 units were sold at a median price of $705 psf, with overall prices ranging from $597-$823 psf.

In fact, price cuts and the relatively affordable costs of smaller units could have spurred demand in the last few months, said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee. CIMB analyst Donald Chua also expects more price adjustments to happen at projects that have not been fully taken up.

In terms of new units that can be sold in the next nine months, few market watchers were confident of seeing the 1,000-a-month mark being crossed often. Some estimate that the transaction volume this year may range from 6,000-8,000 units in total. This would still be an improvement on 2008, when 4,264 units were sold.

Still, it’s not smooth sailing. Even some popular projects are taking back units. URA data indicates that buyers returned 20 units at the Caspian and 10 units at the Alexis between February and March.

URA will release more concrete data on home sales on April 24. Among other factors, its real estate statistics for Q1 2009 will take into account options on units sold that subsequently lapsed later.

Source: Business Times, 16 April 2009

THE bumper private property sales recorded in February were no fluke.

For a second straight month, home hunters defied the weakening economy to buy more than 1,000 units last month.

Property consultants say buyers are attracted to what they regard as good buys in the moderately priced mass market.

Still, they warn that these strong buying levels are probably not sustainable.

Last month, property developers sold 1,220 new private homes, just shy of the 1,332 units sold in February.

It was the first time in over a year that the market has seen two consecutive months with more than 1,000 units sold. Sales for both months were a stunning contrast to the dismal 108 in January.

Another striking figure: First-quarter new private home sales hit 2,660 units, representing 62 per cent of all new homes sold during the whole of last year.

February sales – boosted mainly by two new launches Alexis and Caspian – were the highest since August 2007.

Figures compiled by the Urban Redevelopment Authority also showed 832 new housing units were launched last month, compared with 1,072 units in February and just 204 units in January.
Most units sold last month were in the mass market, along with a few city-fringe small-format apartments at condominiums such as Domus and The Mercury.

HDB upgraders were the hottest group of buyers. CBRE Research said that last month alone, they bought 550 to 600 units at mass market projects such as Caspian, Double Bay Residences, Kovan Residences, Livia, Mi Casa and The Quartz at median prices of $610 per sq ft (psf) to $740 psf.

A survey of first-quarter caveats lodged for this market segment indicated an average price of $695,000, said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho. ‘This is probably a good time for HDB home owners to upgrade to private property as the price gap between private properties and HDB resale flats has narrowed.’

Said Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying: ‘Developers have lowered their price expectations for new launches and generally cut prices of unsold units. Buyers are biting as there is pent-up demand.’

The top three sellers in March were Double Bay Residences, Mi Casa and The Arte. About 85 per cent of units sold last month were priced below $1,000 psf, said PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail.

The high-end showed some life with 70 units launched and some sales, including one Orchard Scotts unit at $2,220 psf.

But overall, only 100 prime units were launched in the first quarter, or just 4.7 per cent of all units launched, well down from the 39.4 per cent of all units launched in the fourth quarter last year.

Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said this was partly due to the retreat of foreigners from the luxury market.

Preliminary data suggests foreign deals stood at 16.8 per cent in the first quarter – a level last seen when Sars badly hit the market in 2003, he said.

Market analysts say it is a good start to the year, but they do not expect the strong buying to continue long-term.

‘In the short term, this rate of buying can continue provided developers lower or maintain their prices,’ Chesterton Suntec International’s research and consultancy head Colin Tan said of March sales.

But in the long term, it is not sustainable, he said. ‘The last time the market sold so many new units (14,811 units) was in 2007. That was when the deferred payment scheme was available. And it has since caused indigestion in the top end of the market.’

Unless the Singapore economy and employment market improve significantly this year, only 6,000 to 7,000 new private homes are expected to be sold, said Mr Mak.

He said healthy demand for mass market homes is likely to continue only as long as average HDB resale prices do not fall by more than 7 per cent year on year.

‘Many in the mass market segment are buying now and banking on their future earnings to service their loans as they are afraid of missing the boat,’ said Mr Mak.

Source: Straits Times, 16 April 2009

Despite the recent slump in the property market, new private properties are still being snapped up in the market.

Last month’s sales of new private homes jumped to 1,323 units, harking back to the days of the property boom, said observers.

In January, only 108 units were sold.

The figure was largely propped up by two newly launched heartland condominiums – the 293-unit Alexis at Alexandra Road and the 517-unit Caspian in Jurong.

Prices started from $450,000 at Alexis and $340,000 at Caspian.

‘Developers probably realised after January’s dismal sales that they had to lower their prices, while buyers noticed these discounts and decided to buy,’ said PropNex’s corporate communications manager Adam Tan.

According to CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho, the majority of last month’s buyers were HDB upgraders who put buying on hold while home prices surged in 2006 and 2007.

He estimated that private home sales this month would come up to about 400 to 600 units, bringing the total number of units sold to 1,800 to 2,000 for the January to March quarter.

‘A few projects are still selling fairly well, but they are not as large-scale as the projects launched last month,’ said Mr Li, who predicted that sales figures are likely to hover around 500 to 700 units a month for the second quarter of the year.

Developments that are anticipated to do well this month include Waterfront Waves in Bedok, which was first launched last year but relaunched in the middle of March, and Mi Casa condominium in Choa Chu Kang, which analysts are expecting to be launched at the end of the month.

They have 457 and 405 units respectively.

The rate of new launches this month is likely to be similar to last month’s, said Dr Chua Yang Liang, the head of research and consultancy at Jones Lang LaSalle Singapore.

‘This is backed by housing developers’ confidence in the latent demand by genuine homebuyers, encouraging them to release more,’ he said.

However, the islandwide take-up rate this month could dip as the market has been rather temperamental, especially in light of the volatile global stock market performance, he said.

So when is the right time to buy?

‘Many people ask that question but they should really be asking themselves where they want to buy, what they are buying it for, and what are their risk profiles,’ said PropNex’s Mr Tan.

‘Don’t buy blindly just because the price is good. As some of these places have two or three years till their completion, one should also consider the property’s surroundings, such as existing or future infrastructure. Go into this investment with about five to 10 years in mind.’

Source: Straits Times, 29 Mar 2009

Property transaction volumes rebound in Feb, but analysts warn surge may not last

AFTER almost half a year of dismal sales, the private property market staged a rebound last month with 1,323 new units sold — about10 times :the 108 units sold in January.

But while the surge had the mass market segment to thank, the current enthusiasm may not be sustainable, say analysts.

Some 60 per cent of February’s sales — a month that saw the highest volume of transactions since August 2007 — came from high-profile, mid-tier projects such as Caspian and Alexis, according to Government statistics released yesterday. Third on the list was The Quartz, which sold 168 units (see box above).

Located near MRT stations and generally priced below $1,000 per square foot, the three projects appealed to HDB upgraders who had been holding back during the property bull run between 2006 and 2007, said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

Overall, 70 per cent of all units sold last month were below $1,000 psf, noted PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail — a sign that most of the sales were to HDB upgraders.

Discounted prices also lured in buyers. Units at The Quartz, for instance, were relaunchedlast month at around $417 to $684 psf, lower than December’s transacted range for the project of $766 to $814 psf.

While February’s strong sales are a shot in the arm for the beleaguered market, analysts do not think they point to a broad recovery.

“As the real estate market is expected to continue to soften this year, such a burst of buying activity may occur from time to time,” said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank’s consultancy and research director. “They may not be sustainable in the medium term unless there is an overall improvement in the economy.”

Jones Lang LaSalle’s South-east Asia’s head of research Chua Yang Liang concurred, saying the strong showing last month was probably a “short term blip” in the larger scheme of things. He said: “The pricing of projects within the affordable total quantum range has coincided with preceding periods of stable and strong public housing prices … supporting the renewed buying interest.”

With the economy expected to slow further, “hardcore incentives” such as pricing discounts and rental guarantees may be required to maintain the same number of sales, he added.

This month, newly-launched mid-end projects are expected to keep private home sales at an encouraging level — as shown by recent sales of Double Bay Residences at Simei and Suites@Kembangan.

PropNex’s Mr Mohamed Ismail predicts March sales to be about 800 units, which would be lower than February but still a big improvement from the preceding months.

Overall, CBRE’s Mr Li sees the year as presenting “a window of opportunity where the gap between private home prices and HDB resale prices is narrow”.

Source: Today, 17 Mar 2009

Analysts ask if February spike from new heartland condos can be repeated

(SINGAPORE) Developers sold 1,323 new housing units in February – eleven times more than in January.

Urban Redevelopment Authority figures show sales hit their highest level since the previous peak of 1,723 units in August 2007, leading some to say that market momentum has returned.

Colliers International’s director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying said that if developers stick with current pricing and product strategies, ‘this trend will stay’.

‘We have always said there are buyers waiting to buy,’ she said, adding that smaller units at lower prices ‘are within a buyer’s risk appetite’.

DTZ senior director Chua Chor Hoon said: ‘Despite the credit crunch there is still plenty of liquidity in the market. Many people have not committed to purchases in the past two years, and savings interest rates are so low now.’

Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho also reckons low interest rates could be a factor in the sales spike, saying ‘abysmally low loan and deposit rates remove the incentive to keep idle balances in cash’.

Still Mr Leong does not think February’s momentum is sustainable. ‘The risk going forward is that HDB upgrader demand is likely to unravel as the pain from rising joblessness and lower wage payouts starts to bite,’ he said.

He also noted that two new launches accounted for the spike in February. ‘Take those two projects out and you have a good idea what is happening in the broader market,’ he said.

The two projects are the 712-unit Caspian at Jurong and the 293-unit Alexis @ Alexandra, which sold 517 and 293 units at median prices of $603 and $1,083 psf respectively.

Other significant transactions in February were at the 625-unit The Quartz, with 168 units sold at a median price of $591 psf; the 38-unit Palmeria Residence with 22 units sold at a median price of $775 psf; and the 31-unit D’Chateau @ Shelford with 21 units sold at a median price of $1,000 psf.

PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail believes more than 50 per cent of February’s sales involved HDB upgraders, as 70 per cent of the units sold were under $1,000 psf.

‘Developers have slashed prices, accepting minimal profits,’ he said. ‘This makes it irresistible for serious buyers, be they investors or HDB upgraders.’

Jones Lang LaSalle’s local director and head of research (South-east Asia) Chua Yang Liang said all regions registered strong take-up rates, with 102 units sold in the Core Central Region, 840 sold in the Outside Central Region and 381 units sold in the Rest of Central region.

But he doubts the rally can be sustained. ‘The strong market showing in February is likely to be a short-term blip in the overall larger scheme of things,’ he said.

While February sales were healthy, returned units from speculators without the means to hold could become a dampener. Already, classified advertisements have appeared for sub-sales at Caspian and Alexis.

DMG Research analyst Brandon Lee thinks speculation is still ‘subdued’, with most buyers either Singaporeans or permanent residents purchasing units to occupy.

‘Volume in the sub-sale market remains tepid, at less than 100 units transacted in February,’ he said.

Selling 1,000 units a month will be hard to achieve, he feels. ‘A more reasonable figure would be 500-600 units for the next three months. After that, the picture would possibly revert back to a normal 200-300 units as the economy worsens and the HDB resale market softens.’

March sales have already hit about 300 units, with 210 sold at the 646-unit Double Bay at Simei, as well as about 25 at the 104-unit Domus in Novena. It is also understood that the 60-unit Kembangan Suites project is fully sold.

Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said that leaving aside Caspian and Alexis, February’s sales of 513 units were the strongest in seven months.

But he cautions that there is a ‘limited’ pool of buyers for small units, and says HDB upgraders could become more discerning. ‘If an HDB upgrader moves from a four or five-room HDB flat to a one or two-bedroom condo, it’s not really upgrading,’ he said.

Source: Business Times, 17 Mar 2009

SINGAPORE: The sale of private residential properties shot up more than tenfold in February to 1,323 units, compared to just 108 in January.

Homebuyers thronged the showflats of mass-market projects like The Caspian in Boon Lay and The Alexis in Alexandra, and they propped up the property sales figures in February, accounting for more than 70 per cent of the units sold for the month.

Property-watchers said those upgrading from public housing were attracted by affordable pricing and proximity to amenities like train stations.

But with the economy likely to contract further, resulting in more job losses in the coming months, February’s home sales may not be sustained.

Priya Sengupta, associate director, Research & Consultancy, Savills, said: “The coming months may not see such a high take-up, but if the momentum goes on and off in this manner, the confidence will return.”

Observers said the February data suggested that buyers are willing to jump in at attractive prices, so developers are likely to launch similar projects with absolute unit prices at under S$1 million.

Brandon Lee, investment analyst, DMG & Partners Securities, said: “I would expect more of these to come in the form of mass market. On the other hand, we could also be looking at a slow progression towards mid and prime projects. These projects might include re-launched projects at heftier discounts.”

Analysts said new mass market, mid-tier properties are likely to fall in the price range of between S$550 and S$600 per square foot. Developers are also likely to offer hefty discounts of up to 30 per cent for some selected properties.

Observers said they expect prices of prime properties to weaken further, falling to about S$1,600 per square foot.

Source: Channel News Asia, 16 Mar 2009

Demand for smaller space leads developers to downsize units to as tiny as 300-plus sq ft
What do you call a space which can fit four hawker stalls?

In the case of a new property development called Kembangan Suites, the space is called a one-bedroom apartment.@ Alexandra sold all its 293 units, including 114 one-bedders (366 sq ft to 527 sq ft), with prices from $450,000.

Other new launches like Mount Sophia Suites in Sophia Road, Nova 88 in Bhamo Road and Zenith in Zion Road are offering studio apartments or one-bedders from 366 sq ft to 484 sq ft.

Crowds flocked to a preview on Friday of new condominium Domus in Irrawaddy Road. The smallest units there – one-bedders at 474 sq ft each – were going for more than $400,000.

Its developer, Lakeview Investments, said those were the most popular and all units released in the first phase had been sold.

‘It’s the size of a hotel room,’ veteran designer Jay Ang said of the new 300-something sq ft homes.
‘You have space only to sleep and eat. There’s definitely no place to entertain,’ noted the specialist in space planning and storage space customising.

But while there are no rules on how small apartments can go, designers and architects have to make concessions for standard dimensions, like how wide a door is, how long a bed is or how deep a wardrobe is.

Developers have quickly cottoned on to this demand for small spaces. Several have rejigged or are considering tweaking their designs and making space for smaller units.

Sing Holdings’ project The Laurels in Cairnhill Road will go from its original 150 units of mostly three- and four-bedders to 290 units that include more one- and two-bedroom units.

UOL Group may also resize the units of its Green Meadows project in Upper Thomson to attract more cost-conscious buyers.

Alexis’ developer, ECPrime, had done the same before the project’s launch.

City Developments said studio apartments in centrally located projects had always been popular because of the lure of city-living.

Studio apartments comprised almost 40 per cent of the offerings at its downtown project, The Sail @ Marina Bay, which was completed last year.

Carving up space for more units is one way a developer can achieve higher dollar per square foot value, said Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

‘Developers manage to sell such small units because they make it affordable in absolute terms,’ he said.

But, property pundits said, when apartments continue to shrink and prices per square feet remain high, home-seekers may go back to buying HDB flats and those looking to rent may decide to go for HDB rooms instead.

The size of private one-bedroom units has halved from 10 years ago.

HDB flats have downsized too, from about 1,130 sq ft for a four-room in 1987 to 970 sq ft now.

Still, Singapore homes have not shrunk to the proportions of those in Hong Kong and Tokyo, where
apartments can be as tiny as 140 sq ft.

That is not to say that all buyers are happy with the slimming effect.

Finance executive Audrey Yap, 35, who is shopping for a bachelorette pad, said: ‘I can’t afford the bigger apartments but the studio apartments are ridiculously small and claustrophobic. I think I may have to settle for a resale HDB flat.’

Source: Straits Times, 15 Mar 2009

It is all of 344 sq ft.

But small is now big.

On just the first day of a preview last week, the developer sold out 60 units of mostly one- and two-bedders ranging in size from 344 sq ft to 581 sq ft.

The smallest units were going for about $300,000.

Industry sources said demand is coming from local and foreign singles, young couples as well as cost-conscious buyers and investors.

Before that, Alexis

MORE projects with small apartments are being released for sale, with one offering units of just 344 sq ft – slightly over half the size of a squash court.

The releases follow the recent success of developments like Alexis, where small units have attracted plenty of buyers with their low overall prices. Prices at the project in Alexandra Road started at $450,000 for one-bedders, which are between 366 sq ft and 527 sq ft.

Source: Straits Times, 12 Mar 2009

A preview for the freehold Kembangan Suites at Jalan Masjid – which has 60 mainly small flats and eight shops – starts today. The project’s marketing material said prices will be revealed only at 10am with sales starting at noon.

Starting prices are at least $300,000 for the one-bedroom units, which range from 344 sq ft to 527 sq ft, according to the marketing material. The project also offers 581 sq ft two-bedroom units.

The 104-unit Domus in Irrawaddy Road will be released for sale this weekend with the interest absorption scheme.

The actual pricing has not been firmed up but will start from just below $500,000 for the 25 studios of 474 sq ft, said Savills Residential, which is marketing the project.

The project has penthouses, including a 926 sq ft double-storey one-bedroom penthouse.

Domus is next to a fairly new launch – I-Residences, where prices are hovering around $900 psf.

In nearby Balestier, The Mezzo – on the site of the former Ruby Plaza – will also be released for sale in a special preview tomorrow. It has 127 units including 20 one-bedders of 560 sq ft.

The unusual aspect of The Mezzo is that it is offering a 6 per cent annual rental guarantee for two years, apart from the interest absorption scheme. The rental guarantee kicks in right after the temporary occupation permit date.

The one-bedders will be priced from about $540,000 and the two-bedders from about $715,000, said HSR Property Group.