The sector’s strong growth has attracted the attention of global hotel players and investors
HOTEL prospects appeared mixed to analysts at the end of last year, with the economy avoiding a deep recession but still shrinking by 1.3 per cent.
In the face of the global recession, the hotel industry delivered sombre numbers, with average occupancies at 76 per cent and revenue per available room (RevPar) heading to a low of $148. It was a year that many in the hospitality industry would rather forget.
To many, the opening of the two billion-dollar integrated resorts (IRs) this year held the promise of economic growth. But there were still concerns of an impending oversupply with 5,800 new hotel rooms (equivalent to 17 per cent of existing stock) and whether there was enough demand to absorb them.
Available hotel rooms have jumped from 32,000 in 2008 to more than 41,000 currently. Even if demand could keep pace with supply, it might be at the expense of room rates, which were, at the time, among the cheapest in the Asia-Pacific. Could the IRs give the industry the fillip it needed? We are now well into 2010 and the tourism industry has had a stellar performance. Tourist arrivals, hotel room occupancy rates, RevPar, and average room rates showed double- digit improvements, on a monthly annualised basis.
There was a record number of visitors in the first seven months, hitting a record 1.095 million in July. This million-plus monthly trend is likely to continue for the rest of the year with the Formula One and Christmas light- up completing a traditionally strong finish to the Singapore Tourism Board’s busy calendar. This year, total tourist arrivals are expected to breach the 12-million mark, a rise of more than 23 per cent from 2009.
The industry is seeing a rebound in Asian business travel, with some hoteliers reporting significantly higher average daily rates and RevPar. In July, hotel occupancy hit a high of 90 per cent (up 10.2 per cent y-o-y), average room rates rose to $209 (up 19.9 per cent) and RevPar climbed to $188 (up 35.3 per cent). Hotel room revenue grew by $173 million (up 37.2 per cent). Twelve of the top 15 tourist markets for Singapore saw positive year-on-year growth.
Records were shattered over at Changi Airport which recorded its highest monthly traffic in July where 3.7 million passengers passed through the airport (up 16 per cent). The government also revised GDP growth upwards for the year, to 13- 15 per cent.
Singapore has successfully expanded the tourism and MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions) market with the game-changing IRs, which attracted more leisure and business travellers. Visitor days (length of stay) of these travellers increased to 4.2 million days in July, up 21 per cent y-o-y.
Singapore’s hotel industry is among the two best performers in the Asia-Pacific. China is another market that enjoyed a meteoric rise y-o-y.
The strong growth of the sector here has attracted the attention of global hotel players, operators, and investors. Some existing hotel groups are seeking to roll out different tiers and brands in the island. Hotel investors and developers have jumped on the bandwagon by bidding for hotels and development sites.
Investment market
A total of three privately held hotels have changed hands since 2009. The latest sale of Ibis Hotel at $200 million or $371,000 per key and Park Regis Hotel (estimated at $730,000 per key) are a clear sign of growing investor appetite.
The Park Regis deal was 33 per cent higher than the $546,000 per key transaction for nearby Swissotel Merchant Court, bought by Malaysian-based TA Group last year in the depths of the financial crisis.
Government sites
Since June last year when a small hotel site in Short Street was triggered for tender and successfully sold, land prices have more than doubled. The latest sale at Havelock/Clemenceau Avenue showed the hunger for hotel projects and the serious liquidity in the market.
Typically, whenever a market is void of completed hotels to buy, investors will look to greenfield alternatives. The price achieved for the Havelock site was $812 per sq ft per plot ratio (ppr). This surpassed the previous record for a nearby site in Upper Pickering Street by just one per cent, with the latter site clinched by Hotel Plaza in August 2007.
The Havelock site attracted fierce competition with 13 big-name bidders. Interestingly, the all-time high for a government hotel site was $1,540 psf ppr for a 60-year leasehold project at Clifford Pier, now the home of Fullerton Bay Hotel. That deal was done in December 2006.
One attractive government site with a major hotel component is the former Capitol Theatre at Stamford Road. Seen as a prized location for an upscale hotel, the site attracted 10 bidders presenting 14 different concepts.
Some of the bidders’ concepts could have ultra luxury hotel operators such as Bulgari and Sofitel. Rumour has it that legendary names such as New York-based Waldorf and Armani may be associated with some of the bidders in their attempt to gain an edge in this ‘two envelope’ tender system.
In the months ahead, more sites are expected to be triggered for sale. These include development sites at Robertson Quay, Gopeng, and Bernam Streets with the jewel being the partially conserved site at the junction of Boon Tat Street and Robinson Road which currently houses the Ogilvy group. Most of these sites will attract potent partnerships between investors and hotel operators.
Prospects for the Singapore hotel market look promising. As an asset class, the sector has been re-rated upwards. The industry can expect further strengthening of room rates, RevPar, and occupancy in the short term – inducing new hotel investors into the playing field.
What was once a market to be avoided has transformed into a preferred play among hotel operators, private equity firms, and developers.
Investor confidence has returned and buyers are now more sure about underwriting RevPar growth for the future. Private equity funds are also likely to return, lured by prospects of higher returns, after largely disappearing from the hotel investment scene last year due to a lack of financing.
Strong economic growth in countries such as Singapore, China, and Australia has boosted the confidence of hotel investors, prompting listed groups such as Singapore Land, which owns the Pan Pacific hotel, Malaysia’s TA Group, and China Lodging Group to buy new hotels or raise fresh equity.
Sovereign wealth funds and the ultra rich tend to seek landmark properties that rarely come up for sale. Among them would be Singapore’s Raffles Hotel – bought recently by a Qatar Investment Authority unit.
For these buyers, there is a status factor associated with owning the hotels. A revival of investor interest also potentially benefits top hotel operators such as Accor, Starwood, and InterContinental as they seek to sell property assets and sign up new management contracts to expand their global footprint.
Lee Pei Ying is a research analyst and Donald Han is managing director, Cushman & Wakefield
Source: Business Times, 23, Sep 2010