Singapore’s private property market is continuing to show signs of declining interest.

Data released Friday from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that just 481 units were sold in December, the fifth straight month of decrease.

The figure is a 20 per cent drop, compared to the previous month’s sale of 600 units.

It is also the second lowest number of monthly sales in 2009, after January’s low, which saw only 107 uncompleted homes sold.

However, last month’s figure was still better than the 131 units sold over the same period a year ago.

Despite a seemingly fast-cooling property market, property developers still pushed out 734 launches in December, edging just sligtly down from the 923 units unveiled in November.

The fall in sales come in the wake of government measures implemented in September to prevent a property asset bubble in Singapore.

Such measures include the removal of the Interest Absorption Scheme and Interest-Only Housing Loans.

As was the trend in previous months, higher-end projects were more popular.

The Shore Residences at Amber Road, which has a median price of S$1,144 per square foot, saw the most number of units sold at 79.

Coming in close behind is Urban Suites at Hullet Road, which sold all 59 units launched for sale last month at a median price of S$2,521 per square foot.

The most expensive unit sold last month was at Nassim Park Residences, a development at Nassim Road, which went for S$3,477 per square foot.

Source: Channel News Asia, 15 Jan 2010

Mass market and mid-tier projects dominated the private residential market last year.

Sales recovered at a healthy clip – with 14,725 units changing hands for the whole year. That is a shade off the 2007 peak of 14,811 units, according to figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

Observers said foreign buyers, mostly from China, contributed to the strong sales.

Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy, Chesterton Suntec International said: “Some of the funds that are coming down to Singapore originate from China.

“If you have been following the China market, you will know that there has been a real estate boom there. Some of the investors have taken profit and have moved into Hong Kong and Singapore.”

Although the overall annual figure was strong, the pace of new home sales has been trending down since August last year.

The decline continued after September when the government stepped in to cool the property market bubble by removing some loan schemes that speculators had taken advantage of.

Last month, URA data showed that just 481 units were sold, mainly due to the mass market segment losing some steam.

Going forward, observers noted that the prime residential segment remains firm, and continued foreign interest means that developers are likely to focus future efforts in that area.

Chua Yang Liang, head of research, Southeast Asia, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “Developers are likely to take note of the current demand trend that we have seen in the December numbers and perhaps focus more of their launches in the prime market.

“After all, economies in China and Southeast Asia are definitely showing better than expected performances.”

Observers also said that the threat of a property bubble forming is steadily decreasing. With take up rates and prices beginning to stabilise, they expect rates and prices to match pace with the general economic recovery and not get ahead of themselves in the coming quarters.

Source: Channel News Asia, 15 Jan 2010

SINGAPORE – Developers sold a total 481 private homes in Singapore in December, compared with about 600 units in the preceding month. They launched a total 734 new private homes last month, also down from November’s figure of 923 units.

For the whole of 2009, developers’ total private home sales reached 14,725 units, just slightly shy of the all-time record of 14,811 set in the peak year of 2007.

The full-year 2009 sales volume is about 3.5 times the 2008 level of 4,264 units.

Source: Business Times, 15 Jan 2010

SHARES of ARA Asset Management and CWT rose yesterday, when both companies confirmed plans to launch a regional logistics real estate investment trust (Reit) together.

ARA, a real estate fund manager tied to Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong group, saw its shares hit a year high. They gained seven cents or 7.8 per cent to close at 97 cents.

Shares of logistics firm CWT put on two cents or 2.4 per cent to close at 84.5 cents. The counter has hovered above the 80-cent mark since late December.

Investors were probably cheered by news of the Reit venture between ARA and CWT. In a joint release, the firms said that they are ‘in advanced confidential discussions’ and have made a ‘confidential submission’ to the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to set up and list a logistics Reit here. They have also made submissions to other relevant regulatory authorities.

‘It should be noted that no definitive agreements whatsoever have been executed,’ they highlighted. They added that they have not obtained approvals from regulators, including SGX and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

ARA and CWT were responding to a Reuters article, which said that the two plan to launch a Reit holding properties worth some $1 billion, and DBS would manage the listing. The information came from ‘a source involved in the transactions’.

While both companies confirmed that they were working together on a Reit, they did not verify the other details mentioned in the Reuters report.

In mid-December, CWT gave the market some clues on its plans. It received a query from SGX on an increase in its share price, and revealed that it was in talks to sell and lease back its logistics facilities for the potential creation of a logistics Reit.

Source: Business Times, 15 Jan 2010

THE local economy is on a growth trajectory that should pay healthy dividends for investors this year, according to a Citibank economist.

At a press conference yesterday, Mr Shrikant Bhat outlined the factors that are creating the ideal climate for expansion – a global recovery, the integrated resorts, inventory restocking and fiscal and monetary policies that encourage business activity.

Mr Bhat, who heads the bank’s wealth management unit, pointed out that good retail sales mean ‘inventory levels are at a global and cyclical low’.

As a trade hub, Singapore is likely to benefit from ‘restocking, which is expected to continue into quarter two this year’, he added.

The momentum should allow the Straits Times Index (STI) to peak in the first half of the year with liquidity continuing to boost the market.

Mr Bhat said he has clients who ‘have not fully invested the cash they accumulated in the first half of last year’.

He tips the STI to peak this quarter before a slump in the second half as central banks sober the markets up, but the local bourse should have clawed its way back to 3,250 points by the end of the year.

‘Going into the (second quarter), the loose monetary stance we have maintained will start getting moderate. The (Monetary Authority of Singapore) will look to tighten the (exchange rate) band to moderate this growth,’ he said.

Mr Bhat estimates there will be a 3 to 5 per cent tightening with a similar appreciation in the Singdollar against the greenback.

He also sees growth from the integrated resorts (IR). Mr Bhat said the 15 to 20 per cent increase in tourist arrivals they will bring will generate a ‘roughly 0.5 per cent – 1 per cent growth in GDP’ through an increase in demand for services.

Citi expects between 30,000 and 40,000 jobs to be added in the first quarter, mainly in sectors benefiting from the IRs and 10 per cent year-on-year GDP growth in the same quarter.

Over the year, Mr Bhat tips that ‘150,000 jobs will be added to Singaporean economy’.

He likes the banking, offshore marine and healthcare sectors.

Source: Straits Times, 10 Jan 2010

HONG KONG has a shortage of prime office space, and Singapore has a glut, so a bit of lateral thinking could easily see local landlords benefiting.

Mr Simon Smith, deputy managing director and head of research and consultancy at Savills Hong Kong, believes Singapore is well placed to take advantage of the imbalance.

Savills research found that Grade A office supply in the Central Business District here is expected to increase by 47 per cent over the next three years compared with only 6 per cent in Hong Kong.

The property consultancy also forecasts that rents here could fall by 20 per cent to 25 per cent and further consolidate this year – an improvement over last year’s 36.2 per cent decline but still painful for landlords.

Rents are expected to hover around US$4 (S$5.60) to US$6 per square foot, it added.

The research suggests an opposite scenario in Hong Kong where rents are expected to increase by about 5 to 10 per cent to about US$12 psf.

As Hong Kong lacks cost competitiveness, Singapore is well placed to attract surplus office demand, said Mr Smith.

Prices for prime office space in Singapore are expected to increase by up to 5 per cent this year.

In a two-tier Grace A office market, newer buildings are likely to include a premium compared with older ones.

In Hong Kong, prices are expected to increase by a modest 5 per cent to 10 per cent after a 50 per cent increase last year.

Much of Hong Kong’s growth is coming from mainland Chinese investors but this is expected to slow as the Chinese government gradually cools off its stimulus measures.

But not all is different for Hong Kong and Singapore.

Prices for luxury residential property are expected to increase by 10 to 15 per cent in both cities.

Prices in Singapore have yet to reach their peaks, said Savills.

Attractive prices and interest from foreigners, especially strong due to the upcoming integrated resorts, will keep prices heading north.

Prices could perhaps reach a high $3,000 psf from around $2,100 to $2,600 psf now but even if so, it would take around 12 to 18 months, said Savills.

Source: Straits Times, 15 Jan 2010

EXECUTIVE condominiums (ECs) are making a comeback after a hiatus of almost five years, as the Government ramps up the supply of flats for middle-income buyers.

The HDB is launching two EC housing sites today, in Sengkang and Yishun, that will yield about 900 new homes in the next few years. ECs boast many of the facilities of private estates but are subject to such HDB rules as income ceiling and minimum occupation period.

Analysts told The Straits Times they expect the sites to attract a lot of interest from developers, given the demand for mass market flats that started heating up in the second quarter last year. Suburban home prices rose by an estimated 11.2 per cent last year, and in the process left a group of ’sandwich-class’ buyers who have been priced out of the market and are looking for alternatives, say analysts.

The HDB move marks a turnaround for a type of housing that lost popularity in recent years due to the affordable prices of mass market condos.

PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail said even though it will be a while before the ECs are launched for sale, buyers are expected to bite when the time comes. ‘In the past, there was no demand for ECs because the private mass market homes were largely affordable, but with tight supply and high demand, HDB home buyers will welcome this fresh supply,’ he said.

ECs were introduced in 1996 to provide for middle-income buyers who wanted private property living but were unable to afford the prices. The last EC launched was La Casa in Woodlands in 2005, which was completed in early 2008. A Punggol EC site was launched in September 2008 but had no takers.

ECs fully convert to private housing after 10 years. First-time buyers with monthly incomes of up to $10,000 can apply for a $30,000 housing grant.

Prices of ECs have been on the rise in tandem with the mass market boom, said analysts yesterday.

A CB Richard Ellis report last November found the median resale prices of ECs had increased 63 per cent in recent years – from $319 per sq ft (psf) at the bottom of the market in the third quarter of 2006 to $519 psf in October last year.

They have inched even higher in the past three months, with homes in good locations hitting around $600 to 700 psf.

A 1,464 sq ft home at Bishan Loft, for example, sold for $1.12 million or $765 psf in December, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority

ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim pointed out that entry-level mass market condos are now priced north of $800,000 for a three-bedder.

‘ECs are expected to be priced below this and are attractive due to the HDB’s grant, so it will offer home buyers an alternative,’ he said.

Ngee Ann Polytechnic real estate lecturer Nicholas Mak said he expects about five to 10 bids for each of the two sites.

He also estimates that the bidding prices will range from $120 million to $141 million for the Sengkang site and $72 million to $96 million for the Yishun plot.

Mr Mak cautioned that despite the positive sentiment in the mass market, it will be difficult to predict responses from buyers when the homes are finally launched – likely up to a year’s time.

‘We also don’t know the interest rates situation then, so it’s too early to accurately predict demand,’ he said.

Home buyer Du Zuo Ling, 27, said the ECs would top her list of homes to consider when they are launched as HDB resale flats are getting more expensive.

‘With ECs, the income ceiling is higher, and we can get housing grants. It will be good to have more of such choices,’ said Ms Du.

Source: Straits Times, 15 Jan 2010

Sengkang plot seen going for $190-300 psf ppr; Yishun, $150-210 psf ppr

Two executive condominium (EC) sites, one in Sengkang and the other in Yishun, will come with a twist when they are launched today. The winning tenderers will have to set aside 95 per cent of units in the initial month of sale for first-time home buyers. That is, those that have yet to receive a housing subsidy.

Market watchers say that the strategy is aimed at meeting strong demand for HDB flats from this segment of late.

ECs are a hybrid of public and private housing. They are strata-titled apartments with facilities comparable to private condos. New ECs are sold with initial eligibility, ownership and resale restrictions similar to public housing; but these are completely removed after 10 years.

Knight Frank managing director (residential services) Peter Ow says that setting aside 95 per cent of a new EC project for first-timers will help ease their difficulty in purchasing a home.

‘Looking at how recent Built-To-Order HDB flats are oversubscribed and an expected continued recovery in the private residential market, ECs – a hybrid fulfilling the difference in these two property types – are expected to be met with overwhelming buying interest,’ he added.

‘Ironically, though, first-time buyers may have less purchasing power . .. and would thus have to be prudent and ensure they will be able to continually finance their purchase, even if they are given the privilege to buy,’ he added.

Of the two 99-year leasehold plots on offer, the Sengkang plot, near Buangkok MRT Station, will be more highly sought after and hence fetch a higher unit land price, say property consultants. It can be developed into 520 apartments and is just one MRT stop away from Compass Point mall.

The Yishun plot, which can yield about 385 units, is not within walking distance of an MRT station, although it could make for a conducive living environment. It is close to Yishun Park, Orchid Country Club and Lower Seletar Reservoir. The Yishun plot is next to a completed EC project, Lilydale.

Property consultants that BT polled predict that land bids for the more popular Sengkang plot would range from about $190 to $300 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr), with target average selling prices of $550-600 psf.

Colliers International director Tay Huey Ying says that three EC projects in the north-east region – Park Green, The Rivervale and The Florida – sold at average prices of $525-546 psf – in Q4 2009.

For the Yishun plot, consultants expect bids of around $150-210 psf ppr with average selling prices of $500-580 psf. Units in Lilydale next door transacted at $494 psf on average last quarter, notes Ms Tay.

Real estate lecturer Nicholas Mak predicts about four to nine bids for the Yishun plot and five to 10 offers for the Sengkang land parcel. BT understands that some developers may be put off from bidding for the EC sites due to more admin work involved, including checking buyers’ eligibility criteria.

The last EC project was Far East Organization’s La Casa in Woodlands, which was released at an average price of about $380 psf in May 2005 and completed in 2008.

Last year’s sharp recovery in 99-year leasehold mass-market private condo prices has revived the need for ECs, say analysts. ‘If the price gap between the new EC projects and new 99-year private condos in the same location is attractive enough, homebuyer demand for ECs will surely return,’ says CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

Sim Lian Group executive director Diana Kuik says the $10,000 monthly household income cap for new EC buyers will serve to rein in land bids. An overly aggressive successful bidder may carve out a higher proportion of small units to try and achieve higher psf selling prices, she reckons.

While some developers may not be be pleased with the stipulation favouring first-time buyers, Knight Frank’s Mr Ow says: ‘We don’t see a great impact on marketability of the EC projects as recent BTO projects have seen overwhelming response.’

ECs were minted in 1995 to cater to the ’sandwich class’ who aspire to own private condos but find themselves priced out. The $10,000 income ceiling for new EC buyers is above the $8,000 for those seeking to buy new public housing flats from HDB.

Source: Business Times, 15 Jan 2010

S’pore to get edge over HK as more firms expand in Asia

A 20 to 25 per cent fall in Grade A office rents in Singapore this year will widen the gap between rents here and in Hong Kong and give Singapore a competitive advantage when it comes to firms looking to expand in Asia, property firm Savills said yesterday.

Rents here could fall to as low as $5 per square foot (psf) per month in 2011 as massive new supply comes onstream, the firm’s research shows. Grade A office rents stood at $8.80 psf per month at the end of 2009, according to Savills.

By contrast, office rents in Hong Kong’s CBD are expected to climb 5 to 10 per cent in 2010 on the back of a supply crunch and anticipated surge in demand from mainland Chinese firms looking to expand.

‘The good news is that over the next year or two, Singapore is going to look a lot more competitive in the region, particularly in comparison to Hong Kong,’ said Simon Smith, head of research & consultancy at Savills’ Asia Pacific unit. His research shows that the Hong Kong Grade A office rental premium over Singapore could climb to as high as 150 per cent.

The Grade A office supply here will rise by 47 per cent between 2010 and 2012, with 7.7 million square feet of space being added.

Savills’ worst-case scenario forecast assumes that take-up will average at 950,000 square feet a year over the next three years. The rental market here will then bottom out in 2011 at an average $5 psf per month.

An analyst from another property firm however said that a fall to $5 psf per month is ‘possible’, but added that he was not sure how likely it is that the fall will be so large.

Separately, data from CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) showed that Grade A office rents in Singapore fell to $8.10 at end 2009 from $15 at the end of 2008. The firm expects Grade A office rents to fall to $7 by the end of 2010 – a year-on-year fall of 13.6 per cent.

In Hong Kong, the Grade A office stock is expected to climb by a much smaller 6 per cent from 2010 to 2012, Savills estimates.

The supply pipeline for Hong Kong Island remains subdued for the foreseeable future, so ‘given the supply of space is still constrained, vacancy levels on Hong Kong Island are likely to recover before other markets where the market cycle will be deeper and longer’, said Rhodri James, executive director of office services for Hong Kong at CBRE.

Savills’ Mr Smith also noted that the completion of new buildings in Singapore will bring about a ‘flight to quality’ as tenants upgrade to better quality office space. This could lead to a fall in rentals and occupancies at less-prime Grade B office buildings.

And upon the completion of the new buildings, a two-tier Grade A office market could also rise, Savills predicts. Newer buildings are likely to command a premium in rents and capital values compared to older ones, the firm said.

However, capital values should not fall even as office rents fall as vendors are not likely to sell office space for lower prices. Savills said that it expects a 0 to 5 per cent rise in office values in Singapore.

Source: Business Times, 15 Jan 2010

TWO nearby malls have raised rents in anticipation that their tenants will be cashing in on the bigger crowd once Resorts World Sentosa opens.

Businesses at VivoCity and HarbourFront who have renewed leases recently told The Straits Times that they have seen a 5 per cent to 10 per cent spike in rental rates. But they are choosing to bite the bullet – hoping it will pay off when the integrated resort (IR), which will start opening in stages from next week, pulls more spending visitors through the malls.

Their optimism stems from Sentosa’s plans to encourage visitors to use public transport, mainly the Sentosa Express – a train that shuttles visitors to and from VivoCity and the island.

The service has contributed to the 40 million visitors that throng VivoCity annually, many of whom also spill over into the neighbouring HarbourFront.

Mapletree, which owns both properties, confirmed the rent increase, but would neither say how many tenants were affected nor the percentage of the increase.

When asked if the raise in rent had to do with the IR’s opening, Mapletree cited market conditions, but recognised that the malls stand to benefit greatly from the IR.

To help attract the crowds, Mapletree has promised tenants to roll out promotional activities targetted at the IR’s tourists, on top of their usual promotions.

But some tenants question the timing, saying the rental hike may be premature, given that only four hotels will open next week. The rest of the IR will open in phases over the next year.

‘It will take some time before business will really pick up, so it may not be justifiable to increase rent now,’ said Mr Michael Leong, manager of The Orange Lantern in HarbourFront.

Nevertheless, the Vietnamese restaurant has accepted a 5 per cent rental increase, seeing it as a worthwhile tradeoff.

‘When VivoCity opened, business eventually picked up by 20 per cent. We hope to see a similar increase when the IR opens,’ said Mr Leong.

Source: Straits Times, 15 Jan 2010